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December 31, 2006
Happy New Year
Posted by Bill It's 2007 here in Iraq, and I'm transcribing interview material for a lengthy post. In the meantime, what cheerier way to commemorate 2006 than Bill Roggio's super-handy "The State of Jihad" round-up? His section on Iraq: Since the destruction of the Golden Dome of the Al-Askaria Mosque in Samarra, the sectarian violence has risen dramatically. After the death of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, command of Al-Qaeda in Iraq was passed to Abu Ayyub al-Masri, a protege of Ayman al-Zawahiri. Al-Qaeda is attempting to create a political front and put an Iraqi face on the insurgency. Under the leadership of of Abu Omar al-Iraqi, al-Qaeda is attempting to unite the fractious insurgent groups in the Sunni areas, and has created an umbrella political organization called the Islamic State of Iraq. Some smaller Sunni insurgent groups, along with some leaders of Iraqi tribes and have been rolled under the banner of the Islamic State of Iraq, along with al-Qaeda in Iraq's Mujahideen Shura Council.
December 30, 2006
Dateline Baghdad: "This is for Saddam."
Posted by Bill
As Greyhawk notes, manifesting on an Air Force flight is not at all the same as actually getting on a flight; it's been a challenging day of travel. Lowlight: waking up in a tent at 3AM, dusted by a fine coating of chalky powder. Tasty. Highlight: a first helicopter ride over Baghdad. Just as you've seen in countless footage, the city is a tan sprawl of squat flats punctuated by architecturally impressive monuments, government buildings and palaces. Brief anecdotes and impressions: Read More »
December 29, 2006
Where in the ...
Posted by Bill Headed out in a few minutes to manifest for a Baghdad-bound flight tomorrow morning. I'm not sure how good internet access will be, so sit tight and thanks for your patience. Kay la Nansa - Kuwait's "Not to Forget Museum"
Posted by Bill
Yesterday I had the opportunity to visit Kuwait's "Not to Forget Museum," a small complex devoted to archiving the history of the Invasion of Kuwait, Operation Desert Storm and the atrocities by and ultimate fate of Saddam Hussein and his regime. This seemed like a timely place to be, given Hussein's rapidly approaching rope-dance for crimes against humanity; if some in the West blithely shrug their shoulders at the atrocities and wars of conquest endeavored by the Iraqi Baath regime, the government of Kuwait and many of its citizens do not. Read More »
December 28, 2006
"Hezbollah's Putsch - Day One"
Posted by Bill Michael Totten is publishing material from his recent trip to Lebanon: I returned to Beirut after eight months and a hot summer war and found that the city had little changed, at least on the surface. My old neighborhood in West Beirut was intact. Civil war reconstruction continued downtown. More restaurants and pubs had opened close-in on the east side of the city. Solidere sported a brand-new Starbucks. Beirut did not appear to be reeling from war. Post-Syrian gentrification had proceeded as scheduled. RTWT.
Embed Prep: Portable Electronics
Posted by Bill Electronic equipment comprises the lion's share of initial embed start-up costs. Some pieces and variations are optional, but Citizen Journalism 101 demands a laptop, digital voice recorder, camera and camcorder. Advanced Citizen Journalism in the Middle of Nowhere suggests a durable laptop, rbgan satellite modem and phone. The specifics: Read More » Seasons Greetings from Kuwait
Posted by Bill I've arrived in Kuwait City and will spend about 48 hours here prepping coverage and breaking in equipment before manifesting on an Air Force flight to Baghdad.
Quick Links
Posted by Dave Price *** My only response to the Rago article is "Hey, we're not all Glenn Greenwald." But this is genius. *** The IMAO book isn't bad either, though I can't decide if it's Bush as viewed by the left and media, or right-wing wish fulfillment. I'm not sure it knows either. *** I might write something about this subject, just because it's so annoying. Empiricism doesn't work when decisions are made using bad data. Access to valid information is crucially important. *** And if you have any vestige of a Y chromosome you noticed this story -- but did you see this one? Of course the real question is which of them will be sent to steal Rosie's wife.
December 25, 2006
Merry Christmas from INDC Journal
Posted by Bill Dorkafork, Dave Price, the Ghost of Hubris and I wish you and yours a joyous Holiday Season.
December 22, 2006
Unlikely War, Unjustified Pessimism, Inconvenient Democracy
Posted by Dave Price Reuel Marc Gerecht doesn't like the idea of replacing Maliki, but his reasoning seems based on some flawed assumptions. Changing the Shiite parts of the Iraqi government and quickly taking on Mr. Sadr would do nothing to end the Sunni insurgency and the holy war of foreign jihadists against the new Iraq. In fact it might be the only thing that can. Our soldiers keep telling us the violence is primarily a political problem, as opposed to a military one. If moderate Sunnis, Kurds, and Shia band together to form a governing coalition against extremists of both Sunni and Shia stripe, then we'd have to consider that a major political step toward ending the sectarian strife. ...the sine qua non for peace in Iraq, and for a democratic future for the country, has always been unity among the Shiites. Any violent struggle between the Mahdi Army and Supreme Council could provoke anarchy throughout the entire Arab Shiite zone Well, there's been very little indication that a purely intra-Shia civil war is even possible, let alone as likely as Reuel seems to suggest. If that were going to happen, the most likely point for it to have occurred was back when Sadr's militia was occupying Najaf. They made a lot of people very angry with that move, and there were some firefights with the Badr group at the time. The Shia have long-established mechanisms for defusing conflicts, and since then many of the Badr people have joined the ISF. In Iraq, the United States is much weaker than in 2004. That seems obviously wrong: we have a couple hundred thousand more ISF fighting alongside us, and the insurgents no longer hold any major cities (remember the 2004 sieges of Fallujah and Najaf?). It's been over a year since they even attempted a larger than platoon-sized battle. The elected government has a constitution and three elections on which to stake its claim to legitimacy. And the Anbar sheiks are starting to throw in with the government. It's unclear how Prime Minister Maliki will react to any American effort to diminish Mr. Sadr. His party, Islamic Dawa, is a bundle of mostly militant contradictions. In the end, President Bush may have to ignore the prime minister if the latter sides with Mr. Sadr. We can just ignore the wishes of the democratically elected leader of the country? We are not an imperial power and they are not a vassal state; we don't get to just toss aside their leaders when they displease us, and the notion that we could or would is frankly appalling -- it's exactly the sort of thing Chomskyites are always accusing us of, not to mention potentially the best way to foment a more popular insurrection. If the Iraqis form the cross-sect alliance of moderates to exclude Sadr and select a new PM on their own as has been bruited about, that's their decision, but regardless we don't get to ignore the people in charge. We can no more sell out democrats in Iraq than we can sell them out in Israel. Maliki's main game seems to be to play for time while his ISF get stronger; every month puts another 5-10,000 bodies at least ostensibly on his side, and the rest get another month of training/action under their belts. Part of power politics is that as you become stronger, weaker players are less likely to clash with you, thus preventing bloodshed. He may be delaying acting against Sadr in the hope that it will eventually be unnecessary. That may not be the best course, but ultimately that will be for Iraqis to determine. Muslims Mark Solidarity With Jews
Posted by Dorkafork From the Washington Post. Local Muslim leaders lit candles yesterday at the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum to commemorate Jewish suffering under the Nazis, in a ceremony held just days after Iran had a conference denying the genocide. (in case you missed it at Instapundit.) "Good Morning Beirut"
Posted by Bill DW's Mary Madigan photoblogs Beirut. Very interesting. And there will be more, much more, at Michael Totten's place: I'm back from a three-week under-the-radar trip to Beirut and South Lebanon. I wanted to write about events there while they were happening. But I went to Hezbollah's southern "capital" of Bint Jbail, and also to their blasted-apart command and control center in the dahiyeh, the suburb south of Beirut. I'm on their "list," so to speak, and it was both easier and safer to work without announcing my presence and giving them the chance to run interference. Totten once mentioned that he likes to gather most of his coverage and then take time to write & publish, so keep an eye on the homepage for a few weeks.
December 21, 2006
Posted by Bill (Via DW) "Brave. The Iraqi soldiers risk their lives to serve their country, and are taking casualties at rate of about four times that of U.S. military."
Posted by Bill Roggio on the Iraqi Army and US MTTs: While critics of the Iraq Army continue to question the capabilities of the units and soldiers, a real move towards operational independence is occurring within the Iraqi Army. Last year, I embedded with the 3rd Battalion, 6th Marines (the Teufelhunden) in Husaybah, as well as the 3rd Battalion, 1st Marines (The Raiders) in the Haditha Triad. The 3/6 was working with the 1st Battalion, 1st Brigade, 1st Division of the Iraqi Army, the most seasoned unit in the Army, while the 3/1 worked with the 7th Division, the greenest unit in the Iraqi Army. In western Anbar, a platoon of Marines paired up with a platoon of Iraqi Army soldiers in small outposts called Battle Positions. The Iraqi Army patrolled jointly with the Marines, and were directly dependent on the Marines for food, supplies, ammunition and transport. I hesitate to more than scan the piece, as I'll be covering some of the same ground and would like to form independent impressions for comparison. You, however, should closely read the rest, which includes a list of "Shortcomings", "Successes" and "Recommendations." "Federal Subsidies Turn Farms Into Big Business"
Posted by Bill The WaPo takes a whack at farm subsidies: The very policies touted by Congress as a way to save small family farms are instead helping to accelerate their demise, economists, analysts and farmers say. That's because owners of large farms receive the largest share of government subsidies. They often use the money to acquire more land, pushing aside small and medium-size farms as well as young farmers starting out. Aside from the implication that the way subsidies are distributed is the problem, rather than the breadth and existence of subsidies themselves, it's a good article. "If the purpose of farm policy was to save the family farm and help stabilize rural communities, then it hasn't worked," Oswald said. "What the government is really doing is subsidizing land and assets, not people." Funny how that ends up ...
December 19, 2006
"The ROC"
Posted by Bill More Roggio from Fallujah: The Iraqi soldiers, or jundi, in southwestern Fallujah run multiple patrols on their own; the Marines do not accompany the jundi every time they leave the wire. They provide for their own food, ammunition, "3 Company gathers their intelligence, plan and execute their own operations," said Lt. Cortez, the lead adviser at The ROC. As they say, RTWT.
December 18, 2006
Whither Iraq Policy?
Posted by Dave Price Is this Bush's new plan for Iraq? Fred Barnes thinks so. Highlights: We must change our focus from training Iraqi soldiers to securing the Iraqi population and containing the rising violence. Securing the population has never been the primary mission of the U.S. military effort in Iraq, and now it must become the first priority. Interestingly, it claims the other options proposed by the ISG and Pentagon will fail, as they don't adequately address what they see as the center of gravity of the entire effort: the effect of Iraqi violence on American public opinion. I have my doubts that seven brigades of U.S. forces will be "sufficient" to accomplish what they're talking about (one consequence of the asymmetrical nature of the conflict is that it takes much less effort for our enemies to maintain the status quo), but I certainly agree public opinion is central and that more reconstruction funds should be allocated. And the Keane/Kagan plan sure beats the "it's time to cut our losses and write Iraq off" conventional wisdom. I've been a fan of Fareed's work in the past, but the cause of liberty is rarely advanced by giving up, and squandering real progress for some vague notion of promoting freedom by being better liked seems both reckless and feckless.
December 15, 2006
A Process, Not An Event
Posted by Dave Price This idea seems to be gaining momentum among Iraqi politicians, as I'm seeing it raised more and more often recently: Here's the background. Iraqi lawmakers have told reporters that they are ready to oust Maliki over his utter failure to deal with Iraq's continuing security crisis. Under Iraqi law, they could do so with a majority vote in parliament. Indeed, Shiite, Sunni, Kurdish and secular MPs have been gradually shaping a parliamentary majority that specifically excludes followers of Al Sadr. This new emerging majority bloc would be headed by the Shiite leader Abdul Aziz Al Hakim, who met with President Bush in Washington earlier this month. Hakim is well known to be close to Iran, but he doesn't want to be prime minister, and it is doubtful that anyone else wants him to be PM, either. Instead, Hakim backs Adel Abdul Mahdi. Everyone celebrated when the purple fingers arrived in Iraq. Remember the joy, the optimism, the sudden swing in conventional wisdom, the doubts among war critics? Well, that event was the icing, the plodding laborious process of political moderates banding together against extremists is the cake. This unheralded dynamic is a primary reason why, as Rudy Rummel has exhaustively demonstrated, liberal democracy is the least worst form of government. (excerpted link via Glenn) "Such fatuous King Canute pronouncements ..."
Posted by Bill Krauthammer on the ISG report: The ISG has not just been attacked by left and right, Democrat and Republican. It has invited ridicule. Seventy-nine recommendations. Interdependent, insists Baker. They should be taken as a whole. "I hope we don't treat this like a fruit salad and say, 'I like this but I don't like that.'" On the basis of what grand unifying vision? On the authority of what superior wisdom? A 10-person commission including such Middle East experts as Sandra Day O'Connor, Alan Simpson and Vernon Jordan?
December 14, 2006
"I don't like Ali Baba"
Posted by Bill More Roggio from Fallujah: As the the Iraqi Army, Fallujah Police and U.S. military work to secure Fallujah, the war in the shadows continues. Insurgents rarely fight in the open. Their tactics consist of intimidation, drive by shootings, roadside bombs, indirect mortar fire and the increasingly dangerous sniper attacks. The units currently here in Fallujah have yet to encounter a coordinated attack where the enemy maintained contact. Read the rest. An Interesting Turn of Events
Posted by Bill The dust-up over Jamil Hussein takes a twist, with former CNN chief news executive Eason Jordan joining the hunt for the mystery man: Who is Jamil Hussein? Michelle Malkin is leading the charge for an answer, and she put that question to me in her blog. The AP is in the midst of a public firestorm regarding whether supposed Iraqi police captain Jamil Hussein actually exists and, if so, whether he was a legitimate news source for a disputed November 24 AP-reported story saying Shia thugs in Baghdad "grabbed six Sunnis as they left Friday worship services, doused them with kerosene and burned them alive near Iraqi soldiers who did not intervene." The U.S. military, the Iraqi government, and many others insisted the AP story was false and that Jamil Hussein either was fictitious or was not an Iraqi police officer, as asserted in the AP's report. The AP has issued two strong statements defending its initial report and produced fresh statements from witnesses of the alleged crime, but the AP has not produced Jamil Hussein himself. Recall that Jordan resigned from CNN after bloggers exposed his comments at the World Economic Forum in Davos about Coalition troops ostensibly targeting journalists. Jordan's new gig is Iraq Slogger, described here: IraqSlogger is the world's premier Iraq-focused Web site. The free 24/7 up-to-the-minute news service provides an unrivaled combination of exclusive and third party reporting and analysis on Iraq. IraqSlogger reports on traditional topics as well as extraordinary topics: black market prices in Baghdad, the buzz on Iraq's streets, the latest graffiti in Iraq, and more. IraqSlogger's contributors include journalists in Iraq, the U.S., and elsewhere who are committed to providing insightful and, at times, unconventional, reporting and analysis, as well as links to, and critiques of, reporting and analysis in U.S. and Iraqi news outlets. IraqSlogger is committed to providing clarity, truth, and confidence in reporting on Iraq. Given the comments that forced his resignation and his admission that CNN covered up for Saddam Hussein's regime to maintain access, many bloggers are skeptical about Jordan's new enterprise and this specific effort to find the AP's source; but if Jamil Hussein can be found - or if he can't - the story will make a great contribution to sussing out truth from lie in the AP's rigid yet oblique defense of its questionable stories. Oh and, by the way - it looks like Malkin's accepted Jordan's invitation to Iraq, a decisive parry of the "Chickenhawk Gambit." Kurt from Flopping Aces (the original site that questioned the AP source) may also go, pending his ability to get time off from his job as a police officer. He also voices some skepticism: I worry, as others have, that this may be a set-up of some kind. Think about it. Eason Jordon should have a easy time of finding Jamil Hussein since the AP has said they have been talked to him for over two years. I have blogged many times that there may indeed be a man named Jamil Hussein but my argument has always been he is a fraud. It has already been confirmed that he is NOT employed by the Iraqi government so why would we go skipping around Iraq in search of someone the AP could supposedly produce in a heartbeat? If Hussein is produced but cannot be verified as who he claims to be, blogs and other electronic media will have a large part in determining how the story will "filed across the land." Whether Jordan is attempting honest brokerage or not, his ability to control the narrative once it takes place is no greater than the collectively focused will of a decentralized blogosphere. Just my take. Hello from Dave Price
Posted by Dave Price Thanks for the welcome Bill, I'd just about forgotten that amusing interlude at Swords Crossed. I wonder what Armando's doing these days? Well, I hope he's fully recovered from the various impalings. Anyways, it's a great honor to be posting here on one of the sites where I first learned of blogs, during the heady halcyon days of RatherGate, when Bill played a critical role in I generally post from a more-or-less classical liberal, Deist perspective on Iraq, technology, and current events (though perhaps I'm best known for my controversial views on cat litter). I'll be filling in as Bill preps for the exotic desert vacation that he somehow conned his readers into footing the bill for (but if we're lucky he may deign to post some material in between sneaking into houris' tents). Perhaps he'll even luck onto the fabled Jamil Hussein, darling of AP reporting and Iraqi milk cartons; I'm told Bill has successfully completed a rigorous missing-persons training course so I'd say his odds are better than average. Announcement
Posted by Bill Dave Price will be joining dorkafork and me to author posts at INDC Journal, helping pick up the slack while I prep for my trip. You might know Dave from his posting at Dean's World, an infamously brief stint at Swords Crossed or his comments on most every single blog known to man. Thanks, Dave. DaF is still acting probational number two at INDC since Hubris's sudden departure, but between you and me, it won't take much to knock him off. Good luck.
December 13, 2006
"Marine becomes highest-ranking female servicemember killed in Iraq"
Posted by Bill I Marine Expeditionary Force Public Affairs has posted a video tribute to Major Megan McClung. USA Today also features a prominent write-up: A major who rejoined the Marines so she could go to Iraq has become the highest-ranking female servicemember to be killed in the war. They say that a person's legacy is reflected in the number of lives touched by his or her time on Earth. Given the quantity of google searches that wound up at INDC in the past few days, I'd say that McClung made a heck of an impression. "The Most Dangerous Place in Iraq"
Posted by Bill Time Magazine's Mark Kukis on Ramadi: Since June, the U.S. effort to quell sectarian violence in Baghdad has drawn thousands of troops to the country's capital, where the world's attention remains largely focused. But outside of Baghdad, U.S. forces are suffering the heaviest death toll these days as they continue to wage a grim, uncertain struggle to defeat insurgents in the predominately Sunni province of Anbar. Tallies of the war dead from August to November show that more than two-thirds of the U.S. casualties in Iraq were outside Baghdad, with four in 10 of those deaths occurring in Anbar Province. Much of the killing happens in Ramadi, where insurgents and fighters from al-Qaeda in Iraq attack Marines, U.S. soldiers and Iraqi security forces almost daily. RTWT, and be sure to note the audio accompanying the story. (Via Fumento, who has more) More Troops, Continued
Posted by Bill After varying assessments for more troops from NCO's, junior officers, (retired) senior officers, military analysts, Senators and Congressmen, and wondering why the Administration and Congress haven't taken aggressive steps to expand the military ... Why didn't the Administration (through Congress) use the past 3-5 years to restructure the composition of the service branches to meet the needs of an occupation, insurgency and massive reconstruction project? The answer for planning in 2001 to late-2003 is simple: they didn't anticipate a long insurgency and occupation. For late-2003 and beyond, I have no idea. ... an official request is on the horizon: The Army and Marine Corps are planning to ask incoming Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates and Congress to approve permanent increases in personnel, as senior officials in both services assert that the nation's global military strategy has outstripped their resources. Not to mention explains the practical limits on significant surges of personnel for contingencies that arise in Iraq and Afghanistan ... Do note that the numbers are relatively small, however: the Army may be requesting a 6% increase from its officially budgeted "end-strength," but that's really less than a one percent increase when compared to the number of personnel currently on active duty. The report is less than specific on the Marines, citing a requested increase of "a few thousand." These requests are also intended to shift the accounting away from the emergency defense bills and into the regular budget, lending incremental gains an imprimatur's permanence.
December 12, 2006
"What Happens To Your Body If You Drink A Coke Right Now?"
Posted by Bill Soft drinks: a fundamental component of rising obesity rates: Have you ever wondered why Coke comes with a smile? It's because it gets you high. They took the cocaine out almost a hundred years ago. You know why? It was redundant. I can barely smell a glass of Coke, much less drink the vile syrup. Read the rest. Winter Reading List
Posted by Bill I've been remiss in not promoting recently published books written by several friends of this site. In my defense, I haven't had time to read them due to my impending trip. That said, all three authors are respected bloggers and superb writers & editors, so I have no hesitation issuing a recommendation. *** First up, a novel by Arthur Chrenkoff, he of the groundbreaking and invaluable "Good News from Iraq" round-ups: Night Trains: Martin is an ordinary Australian twenty-something, whose comfortable, well-ordered life gets turned on its head when he starts seeing and hearing things each night at the nearby semi-deserted railway yards: mysterious lights, people who disappear when followed, steam trains that aren't supposed to be there. Taken to the edge of sanity, Martin eventually learns that he is to ride the "night trains" every night back to wartime Europe to rescue Jews and help the resistance. But before the war ends, Martin will have to confront his SS nemesis, save the woman he loves, and face a terrible secret from the past that can destroy him before he can accomplish his mission. Schindler's List meets the Polar Express. Very cool.
Geraghty made his mark blogging coverage of the Kerry presidential campaign for National Review. In this insightful book, he deconstructs all the theories about Republican popularity as part of a craving for family values and focuses on what he considers the real issue: national security and safety in the face of terrorist threats. Americans favor a political party they think will not hesitate to kill terrorists. Drawing on recollections by ordinary Americans of the fear they felt on 9/11 as they faced the harrowing choice of which child to pick up from school first, Geraghty believes this fear created "Security Moms and Dads" singularly focused on safety who believe that Republicans are most likely to deliver on that issue. Even in today's dim political environment for the GOP, Jim's thesis is sound. For example: [F]ewer than 1 in 5 have "a great deal" of trust in Bush to "recommend the right thing" for the United States to do in Iraq.
"Exciting, entertaining...and insightful; this book breaks new ground and allows us to get a better understanding of what is happening and has happened in our current war...The book is destined to set a trend for other blogger books as this one certainly leads the way with an excellent telling of our experiences in this current war. This will be a hard act to follow for the others! The Military Writer’s Society of America (MWSA) gives this book its highest rating of FIVE STARS." - Bill McDonald, President, MWSA I can't sell it any better than that. Congrats and well done to the 'sphere's newly minted authors. Terribly Unserious Quick Links
Posted by Bill *** Make it stop. Make it stop. Please, make it stop.
(Via DW)
Police and firefighters yesterday rescued a Long Island man who had been trapped in his bedroom for four days after piling up a 7-foot-high mountain made up of bags of his own feces, jars of urine and other debris. Ok, maybe a lot.
They sure seem like reasonable analysts, those commenters. But they forgot the biggest Dhimmi of all: INDC Journal co-blogger Dorkafork, whose post today on Dennis Prager is a clear manifesto for submission to Islam. Oh well DaF, there's always next year - practice your ululation.
Feel free to leave a suggestion. Dennis Prager's Inconsistent Arguments
Posted by Dorkafork Recently I mentioned Dennis Prager's opinion on Keith Ellison swearing in on the Koran as an example of "hateful, intolerant, bigoted response to the mere idea of a Muslim holding office." I realize that's a pretty inflammatory statement which could use further explanation; more than one commenter defended Prager, describing him as far from bigoted and "a truly decent human being." I'm sure that for the most part he is remarkably decent. But I believe his views in this particular case are based on prejudice rather than sound reasoning. Let me try and lay out the reasons why I believe that to be the case. Read More »
December 11, 2006
"How to Win in Anbar"
Posted by Bill This is a must-read: a Powerpoint presentation (pdf document) utilizing stick figures which I suspect succinctly summarizes many of the same political, economic and warfighting complexities and challenges presented by the Devlin analysis. I've learned at least as much about Anbar from those 18 slides than the entirety of the MSM coverage to date. The author? An evidently brilliant fellow named Captain Travis Patriquin. CPT Patriquin was killed by the same IED that felled PAO Major Megan McClung last Wednesday. Michael Fumento knew both of them, and pens an epitaph: Patriquin was exactly the sort of officer we need in Iraq. He spoke at least five languages including fluent Arabic, and was a major player in getting Ramadi sheiks to start supporting Coalition operations by sending men into the Iraqi Police and urging civilians to expose al Qaeda terrorists. He fought in one of the fiercest battles of the Afghanistan war, Operation Anaconda, later receiving the Bronze Star. Patriquin also provided a terrific inbriefing, giving an overview of a city that seems slowly to be improving but is still too much like the local graffiti states: "The graveyard of the Americans." I quoted him at great length in my major article about the trip in the Nov. 27 Weekly Standard. Fumento writes of their death: While most journalists heading into Ramadi require no PAO escort, for some reason on December 6 both McClung and Patriquin, plus 22-year-old Army Specialist Vincent J. Pomante III decided to accompany some reporters downtown in a separate vehicle. A tremendous blast from an improvised explosive device (IED) ripped apart their truck, killing all three. I heard about Patriquin from a cousin of his, then left a message for McClung asking for verification and offering her my condolences. And then I found out about her. McClung has the dubious honor of being the first female officer killed in the war. Godspeed MAJ McClung, CAPT Patriquin and SPC Pomante. (Powerpoint via Blackfive) Ramadi Narrative Swings Against Ricks?
Posted by Bill After Thomas Ricks' latest highly negative WaPo piece about the fight in Anbar, I wrote a post documenting conflicting narratives coming from reporters on the ground: "Will the Real Anbar Narrative Please Stand Up?" Below are headlines and excerpts from articles by Michael Fumento, Strategy Page, Bill Roggio, Greyhawk from Mudville and various UK Times correspondents that seem to at least contradict Ricks' angles that A) Anbar is lost and B) Al Qaeda is gaining rather than losing popularity among the local populace. Most of these reports track the evolution of the tribal war against AQ and the wider insurgency ... Shortly thereafter, Fumento wrote a cooincidentally titled post asking the same question: "Will the real Ramadi please stand up?" Why such different conclusions between our articles and the Post's and whom to believe? Yesterday, Fumento follows up and declares that "the real Ramadi has stood up:" In a Nov. 29 blog, "Will the real Ramadi please stand up?" I observed that three articles on conditions in Ramadi and al Anbar Province had appeared within a week of each other giving entirely different points of view. Mine and one in the Times of London said we're winning the war in Ramadi; a Washington Post A1 story co-authored by "Fiasco" author Thomas Ricks claimed exactly the opposite. The difference, I said, could be explained simply. I and the Times writer reported from Ramadi. Ricks and his co-author have not only never been to Ramadi, they wrote their piece from Washington. Well now the WashPost has printed another article on the city, this time an upbeat one. What gives? You guessed it.The second one was reported from Ramadi. Case closed, thank you very much. The newest WaPo article in question: Ramadi, the capital of the western, overwhelming Sunni Arab province of al-Anbar, has seen some of the bloodiest street battles of the war. Sunni insurgents remain well-entrenched here and continue to move freely through parts of downtown where Americans often dare not set foot. I will note that there may be value in looking at the situation in Anbar with different perspectives: while experience with those on the ground is surely invaluable, I'd imagine that a focus on military success could possibly distort an evaluation that necessarily includes political and economic factors to co-opting a local population and winning a counterinsurgency, as well as whether the current force levels required to maintain progress are sustainable. That said, Fumento's point seems pretty solid, as not one but (at least) five journalists reporting from the scene of the Anbar fight have painted a picture that's far more hopeful than Ricks' dire presentation of the famously negative Devlin report. I'll defer to the guy who's been there.
December 10, 2006
Closing Our Eyes Doesn't Make it Better
Posted by Bill I disagree with many characterizations of US foreign policy in this piece by David Rothkopf. For example: As one prominent Arab political scientist observed to me, "The secret most Americans won't admit is that this most recent war is not about terrorism. It is part of a quarter-century-old geopolitical tug of war with Iran for regional hegemony." Though the two are intertwined, the most recent war was more about terrorism than the short or mid-term "geopolitical tug of war with Iran"; if that had been the main US concern, we'd have prioritized maintenance of Iraq as a foil for Iranian interest in the region, rather than taking the strategic gamble to depose the Baathist regime. In addition, I think Rothkopf casually dismisses a very real concern over state-abetted terrorism in the years after 9-11. But despite this and other debatable elements, he gets several big points (including the biggest one) exactly right: The Middle East today is infinitely more dangerous than at the start of Gulf War II. Now, the Bush administration must do what it did not do before invading Iraq: Plan for the likely and possible futures, not just the one it hopes to face. While a long-term U.S. military presence in the region may further stoke anti-American passions, it may also make good and prudent strategic sense. The American people will need to assess such options based on the country's overarching interests -- which include reducing the likelihood of yet another war in the region -- rather than the short-term, feel-good option of bringing the troops home and retreating into a state of semi-isolationism. And: Over the long-term, one reasonable approach in the Middle East could be called "parallel containment:" The United States must contain the complex threats it faces in the region, and at the same time try to limit our vital interests there. On the first score, Hezbollah and Hamas must know that the United States is present and stands ready to take action. Iran must know that it will not be allowed to develop nuclear weapons, period. Moderates in the region must know that we will stand by them, with economic aid and political support, helping to restore U.S. moral authority in the Middle East. And everyone must know that an attack against Israel will always be considered an attack against America. On the second score, we must embark on the long-term but critical task of reducing our energy dependence on the Middle East. No strategy in any Gulf war could produce more lasting change in the region than a prolonged fall in oil prices. The only dependable formula for ultimate victory in the Gulf wars will come through innovation and conservation right here at home. My only contention with that paragraph: I now believe Iran will obtain nuclear weapons, which could presage a regional arms race and bolder conventional attacks by Iran's regional proxies, particularly against Israel. The rest is worth your time. Quick Links
Posted by Bill *** Roggio in Fallujah: "Hearts and Minds:" Navy Corpsman are attached to Marine units to provide medical care for the Marines. Here with the Police Transition Team, the corpsmen are perhaps the most important member of the team. The corpsmen not only treat the Marines, but are the primary medical caregivers of the Iraqi police. "When it comes to hearts and minds, the corpsman are it," said Major Brian Lippo, the commanding officer of the Fallujah PTT. "This is where we shine. They show the police and Iraqi people (that) we are here to help."
Some people justify Hizbullah's actions by claiming they represent an impoverished community long neglected by the state. In other words, because the Shias of Lebanon were poor and neglected, somehow Hizbullah earned the right to be the bully it is, since it provides for them. This is a false argument, mainly because Hizbullah was never about social justice, but about farming humans to carry out an essentially Jihadist agenda. The people who benefit from their Iranian-funded projects are essentially tools for social change that is incompatible with Lebanese democracy. And if the state has failed Hizbullah's people, so has Hizbullah, which is now holding their country's economy hostage.
He commented to me about the proficiency of the 1/506th. He has great respect for their commander and would serve with him anywhere any time. My boy and his platoon worked with the 1/506th quite a bit. One day a sergeant brought the SEALs some spades for their helmets. [The spade is the symbol of the 1/506th.] They will never take them off. My boy thinks the 1/506th is one group of bad dudes. He also had good things to say about other Army and Marine units, combat teams of all kinds. These are dudes who take on the bad guys eye to eye. They jump out the back of a Bradley [fighting vehicle] and go get them. My boy says they don't get the credit they deserve. He does not like the way the media sometimes glamorizes the SEALs when other American soldiers are doing the same work. I can tell you from experience that real SEALs do not talk about themselves. In civilian dress, these guys look like any other American. Most of them are very humble about their accomplishments. Like most everyone else, SEALs are in awe of good soldiers. According to my boy, some of the guys from the Pennsylvania National Guard were as good at soldiering as SEALs, Marines, or 1/506th. He said some of these National Guard guys were very bad news for the enemy. In fact, guys with families at home are very determined to get back to their wives and kids. They do not mess around with the enemy. They kill him quickly and with great determination because they are planning on going home.
December 09, 2006
Iraq Marathon/Charity Event
Posted by Dorkafork Tomorrow, Dec. 10, American troops will be participating in a marathon on a base in Tikrit. Many will be running to support TAPS (Tragedy Assistance Program for Survivors), an organization that aids the families of those who gave their life for their country. It may be too late to sponsor a runner, particularly if you miss this post this weekend, but a general donation can be made here. More information can be found here. (Note: To avoid any confusion, this does not seem to be the same marathon set up by Major Megan McClung, mentioned in a previous post. Participants in this marathon get credited for a marathon in Honolulu, whereas the race mentioned in regards to Major McClung is a satellite race for the Marine Corps Marathon in Arlington.) "Al-Qaeda in Iraq is the driving force behind the attacks inside Fallujah ..."
Posted by Bill A Bill Roggio dispatch from Fallujah: To combat al-Qaeda and the insurgency, the Fallujah police are working to build offensive capabilities. One such example is the Special Missions Group, a new, platoon-sized unit of thirty specially selected Fallujah police designated to hunt al-Qaeda and insurgents in the city. The Special Missions Group was the vision of a Marine Reserves sergeant in the Police Transition team. The sergeant, who asked not to be identified, is an FBI agent, and has experience with this sort of training. RTWT.
December 08, 2006
RIP, Major Megan McClung
Posted by Bill Marine Public Affairs Officer Major Megan McClung was killed by an IED in Ramadi Wednesday. In working on my post on the L.A. Times report on the Ramadi airstrike, I exchanged several e-mails with Maj. Megan McClung, a press officer in Ramadi. She was at all times very cooperative and friendly with me. She never once gave me the impression that she thought my inquiries were unimportant because they were coming from a mere blogger. I won't exaggerate and pretend I knew her well, I don't know her hometown, whether she was married or had kids. I do know she was an interesting and welcome addition to Camp Ramadi, Iraq - and I will miss her. I've exchanged e-mails with Major McClung in preparation for my trip, and she was uniquely organized and "take charge" about helping to obtain access and design coverage. While googling her name to look for official word of her death, I also learned that she was a Division I college gymnast, triathalete and avid marathoner, as mentioned in this WaPo story about satellite races for the Marine Corps Marathon: Marine Maj. Megan McClung, an avid runner who will participate in Iraq on Sunday, came up with the idea in May for a satellite race for deployed servicemen and women. With the help of Marine Corps Marathon organizers and the Army's Office of Morale, Welfare and Recreation, the MCM Forward will officially be considered part of the marathon here. Each finisher in Iraq will be added to the list of those who cross the finish line in Rosslyn. Rest in peace, Major McClung.
December 07, 2006
No Honest Brokerage with Iran and Syria (UPDATED)
Posted by Bill The worst portion of the Iraq Study Report is its advocacy of engaging Iran and Syria to find stability. Given that those two countries have been waging a proxy war to kill Americans and Iraqis and destabilize Iraq, rewarding that effort amounts to strategic capitulation dressed up as diplomacy. Along these lines, I'll point you to an article in Time Magazine which covers Lebanon's heightening sectarian conflict amid the diminishing promise of the Cedar Revolution. The bit that caught my eye: So why is the Cedar Revolution crashing down? Part of the answer rests outside Lebanon's borders. During the summer's war with Israel, Hizballah relied heavily on the Syrians for logistic, military and financial support. According to Israeli officials, Western diplomats in Beirut and Arab sources, Damascus acted as a conduit for Iranian weapons to reach Hizballah, allowing the group to fight the Israelis to a standstill. Iraq is not just Iraq. I understand the frustration (especially amongst a dour right-wing) with the war's progress sliding bloodily sideways, but the concept of horse trading with the regimes that have A) been essentially fighting us via proxies and B) are interested in America's strategic disengagement from the Middle East, including leaving other weakened regimes like Fouad Siniora's Lebanon to their thuggery, amounts to a generational defeat of regional freedom. And while yesterday's status quo may seem attractive - no Americans dying, the end to a confusing war, etc - it also replants the seeds of terror (dueling dictatorship and religion) and sets the world up for graver conflict down the road. Theoretically, talks with Iran and Syria aren't out of the question, but the US needs the position to approach such engagement carrying far more stick than hat. To wit, Henry Kissinger via Bruce Kesler: A diplomacy that excludes adversaries is clearly a contradiction in terms. But the argument on behalf of negotiating too often focuses on the opening of talks rather than their substance. The fact of talks is assumed to represent a psychological breakthrough. The relief supplied by a change of atmosphere is bound to be temporary, however. Diplomacy - especially with an adversary - can succeed only if it brings about a balance of interests. Failing that, it runs the risks of turning into an alibi for procrastination or a palliative to ease the process of defeat without, however, eliminating the consequences of defeat ... UPDATE: Bryan Preston: Since when did the United States or any country wage war by publishing its plans or suggested plans for all the world to see? Since when did the United States or any country let its enemies see internal deliberations and strategic pivots, and since when did we think our enemies shared our interests, either in one war theater or on a more broad strategic plane? Since when did we wage war by a geriatric committee of has-beens and shady Washington insiders? Since when has there been anything to talk about with the world's two worst remaining terrorist states? And the NY Post: IRAQ 'APPEASE' SQUEEZE ON W. It Can't Happen Here
Posted by Dorkafork I've always thought it can't happen here, not only because of the Constitution, but also because of the innate decency of the American people. I'm getting a little less sure I can count on the decency part: When radio host Jerry Klein suggested that all Muslims in the United States should be identified with a crescent-shape tattoo or a distinctive arm band, the phone lines jammed instantly. The bolded part may not be entirely correct. 39% don't necessarily hold prejudiced views on Muslims. They hold prejudiced views on Arabs. Back to the article: And optimists saw signs of change in the November 4 election of the first Muslim to the U.S. House of Representatives, which has 435 members. Instead, it showed a hateful, intolerant, bigoted response to the mere idea of a Muslim holding office. For example, Dennis Prager. Swearing an oath on the Koran would be "doing more damage to the unity of America and to the value system that has formed this country than the terrorists of 9-11." Would we have had comparisons to 9-11 if it had been a Hindu Congressman requesting to swear on a Bhagavad Gita? Then there are the comments on that post. (I hate it when bad commenters happen to good blogs.) "I'd rather there was no book of religion involved at all than even ONE son-of-a-bitch swearing the oath of office on the satanic Quran." Takbir is an Arabic name for the phrase Allahu Akbar, which means simply "God is Great." So the last commenter could have just as easily said "Muslims? No thanks." That's not the only bit of ignorance on display in the comments, like mistaking Muhammed for Allah, and the imaginary military slogan. But it's not uncommon for people who know nothing of even the basics of the Islamic faith to spout off on it's essential evil qualities. I remember feeling a sense of pride in my countrymen for the almost complete lack of violence against Muslims in the days and weeks after 9/11. I'd like to continue to feel pride in the continued lack of violence, but that 39% makes it difficult. I would've expected an increase in xenophobia in the days after 9/11, when there were worries about imminent subsequent attacks. To see that increase with a complete lack of major terror attacks in the US is troubling.
December 06, 2006
Pelosi's Choice for Intel Chair Wants More Troops
Posted by Bill Well now, isn't this interesting: In a surprise twist in the debate over Iraq, Rep. Silvestre Reyes, the soon-to-be chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, said he wants to see an increase of 20,000 to 30,000 U.S. troops as part of a stepped up effort to "dismantle the militias." This is a surprising and mature perspective from a leader on the leftward side of the aisle. Read the whole thing. All Day Meetings
Posted by Bill Posts later.
December 05, 2006
Embed Prep: Body Armor & Other Protective Gear
Posted by Bill Potentially the most important equipment req for embedding in Iraq is the protective gear designed to keep folks insulated from flames, shrapnel and bullets. It's not only important from a safety perspective; the Multi-National Forces-Iraq's media checklist includes the following admonition: No matter where you go though, you will need body armor and a helmet to travel on any military mode of transport. IF YOU DO NOT HAVE IT-YOU WILL NOT BE ALLOWED TO TRAVEL OR EMBED with the military. No armor, no trip. Cooincidentally, this is also a requisite for cab rides to certain portions of DC. The following outlines my dawning experience with the protective essentials: Read More »
December 04, 2006
"The Military and The Media"
Posted by Bill Bill Roggio is posting from Iraq: In nearly every conversation, the soldiers, Marines and contractors expressed they were upset with the coverage of the war in Iraq in general, and the public perception of the daily situation on the ground. [They] felt the media was there to sensationalize the news, and several stated some reporters were only interested in "blood and guts." They freely admitted the obstacles in front of them in Iraq. Most recognized that while we are winning the war on the battlefield, albeit with difficulties in some areas, we are losing the information war. They felt the media had abandoned them. Read the whole thing. Posted by Bill Quick Links
Posted by Bill *** John Bolton will resign. I'm sorry to see him go, primarily because his departure spells an end to Goldstein's "John Bolton's Straight-Talking Mustache 'Regis'" series.
So what happened? Two polls shifted Florida above Michigan, despite a moderately effective win against Arkansas and a bye week for the Wolverines. Had USC beaten UCLA as expected, Michigan would have likely remained in third place -- but the coaches and sports writers decided to skew the polls in order to prevent a rematch of Michigan against Ohio State for the national championship. The "one answer" given? I'll give you at least five. Ironic is the fact that Ed congratulates Notre Dame - a questionably talented program which trades more on its name than Paris Hilton - for winning a BCS berth. Go Gators. Anyone know any good sports bars in al-Ramadi? And only ones with big-screen High Def please; anything else is primitive.
See also: The Pick of Destiny (Live), The Metal (Live) and Beelzeboss. (Language, Metal and faux-Satanical Imagery Warnings)
December 01, 2006
A Direct Marine Quote on the Ricks Story
Posted by Bill FOX Radio News Contributor Griffin Jenkins (who was recently embedded in Fallujah) quotes Marine Lt. Col. Bryan Salas about Thomas Ricks' recent story: We can win - but as the report says we can't win with just military power, we need the economic and political powers to engage as well. Read the rest for Jenkins' thoughts. With all of the criticism of Ricks' potentially selective presentation of the intelligence report, I think it's important to note that the content of the report was indeed fairly grim, highlighting significant challenges to a US victory. But from what I understand, it also laid out recommended steps to obtain victory, rather than proclaiming Anbar a lost cause. Jenkins also has perspective on the ABC report intimating possible withdrawal from Anbar. "This Is Realism?"
Posted by Bill Charles Krauthammer brilliantly addresses the current tussle over Iraq policy: The key to progress is political change within Iraq. The newest fashion, however, is to go "regional," engaging Iran and Syria in order to have them pull our chestnuts out of the fire. This idea rests on the notion that both Iran and Syria have an interest in stability in Iraq. The rest is worth your time. Previous: Iran Blatantly at (Proxy) War Quick Links
Posted by Bill *** In case you aren't caught up on the AP's questionable sources dust-up, Malkin has a monster link round-up.
Genes may help predict infidelity, study reports an excuse to slouch ... Backache? Sitting upright could be culprit and an excuse to live in your parents' basement and play video games all damn day: Success may be "family affair" High-five, dorkafork. High-five.
Dennis Prager's attack on the idea of a Congressman swearing on a Koran - up to and including his clumsy Godwin's Law violation - is a silly angle of contention. Bonus trivia: name the President who signed this statement: As the Government of the United States of America is not, in any sense, founded on the Christian religion; as it has in itself no character of enmity against the laws, religion, or tranquillity, of Mussulmen ... (And yes, Nancy Drew, quote truncated) (dorkafork adds: That was some bizarre video at Hot Air. Prager repeatedly says he's not asking for a religious test, but near the end they show a quote of his: "America is interested in only one book, the Bible. If you are incapable of taking an oath on that book, don't serve in Congress" Mr. Prager, you keep using those words "religious test." I do not think they mean what you think they mean. I will also go out on a limb and say that I do not think that Ellison will be doing more damage than the terrorists of 9/11.) *** Embed prep anecdote: folks sure do look at you funny when you jog around downtown DC in Level IV body armor, even at 5:30 AM. Here's hoping the Secret Service doesn't mistake it for a suicide vest ... though if they do, I'll be well-protected. |