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In case anyone still reading hasn't noticed, I'm not posting at INDC Journal regularly these days. I'm fairly busy with the day job, long-term journalism pieces which require a good deal of research and working on small things behind-the-scenes at the Long War Journal. When any future pieces are published I will post a note and link here, however, so check back infrequently or simply add this site to your RSS feed.

In the meantime, a quick non-Iraq-related "I told you so." In August '06, I criticized the analysis of an oft-quoted criminal justice expert named David Kennedy, whose latest contribution to media hype at the time was a dramatic reading of homicide trends that labeled our cities spiraling "war zones." My conclusion:

Could he be right? Could the proportionally small yet notable uptick in homicides of the past four of five years signal the dawn of domestic war zones? Could the homicides be caused by a violent "culture of respect" promoted in mass entertainment? And has aggressive law enforcement "destroyed the village in order to save it[?]"

In some of these respects, anything is possible. We'll have to see if last year's 5% increase in homicides continues for a few years, and also note whether overall violent crime reverses and starts to trend upwards as well. But I wouldn't feel comfortable putting a great deal of money on his conclusions based on the above presumptions. And given Kennedy's purple prose and tendency to enthusiastically wax alternately sanguine and apocalyptic within the space of 13 months, over inverse annual homicide rate swings of 3.7% and 5% respectively, the only thing that I feel certain about is a basic mistrust of his analytical ability.

Now, more than a year later, we have an update on homicide rates in 2007 (emphasis mine):

Murder fell 6.5% in America's largest cities during the first half of 2007, a sharp contrast with smaller cities, where murders rose 3.2%, according to a preliminary review by the FBI.

Overall, murder declined by 1% throughout the USA during the first half of 2007, the report released Monday showed. Violent crime fell by nearly 2% nationwide with drops in every major crime category - including rape, robbery and sexual assault - suggesting that some recent spikes in violence may be short-lived.

Read the rest of the previous post if you're interested in more perspective on crime statistics.

Posted by Bill at January 8, 2008 09:52 AM | TrackBack (0)