INDCJournal: Quotable

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October 15, 2007

Quotable

Posted by Bill

"Nevertheless, it's looking more and more as though those in and outside of Congress who last month were assailing Gen. Petraeus's credibility and insisting that there was no letup in Iraq's bloodshed were -- to put it simply -- wrong."

See also, Roggio: Violence in Iraq Drops Dramatically

UPDATE: And the hits keep coming: Al-Qaeda In Iraq Reported Crippled

Posted by Bill at October 15, 2007 09:34 AM | TrackBack (0)

Comments

I think that it would take "a willing suspension of disbelief," to not see the progress that is being made in Iraq.

Posted by: Grumpy at October 15, 2007 01:54 PM

Wow, did the Washington Post get taken over by creepy old Rupert Murdoch or did it just succumbed to teh stupid?

And we're talking about about U.S. troop casualties, is it not traitorous (petraetoreus?) to base conclusions of the success of the surge, which stared in February of this year, by selecting only a few months for comparison - when the complete record of U.S. troop deaths on icasualties.org paints a more honest and entirely different conclusion.

As of just over a week ago, we've exceeded the number of casualties of 2006, and we're only in mid-October.

Posted by: rabit at October 15, 2007 08:24 PM

No, this all makes sense. When you change a strategy by moving forces from large, protected bases and into positions outside the wire to live with and protect a population in a war zone, casualties increase. As the strategy plays out, the initial spike is replaced by a sustainable reduction. This is a well-known peril and reward of counterinsurgency.

So if the surge and new strategy is working, it would play out like it is now. That said, it is worth noting - as most commanders on the ground will tell you - that a couple of positive data points do not mark a definitive, or at least sustainable, trend.

But that said, it's poor analysis to underplay the large drop in US and Iraqi casualties as anything other than very significant; especially when it occurs at the end of the hot months, during Ramadan and a stated AQ offensive that has fizzled.

But don't let any of that get you down, rabit. I'm sure some bad news is just around the corner that you can represent as part of a longer trend.

Posted by: Bill from INDC at October 16, 2007 11:43 AM

So if the surge and new strategy is working, it would play out like it is now.

For the duration of the surge, the U.S. military sustained higher rates of casualties than any other time since the invasion. Because these numbers gradually are returning to the four-year average, we should see this as a sign of progress?

That said, it is worth noting - as most commanders on the ground will tell you - that a couple of positive data points do not mark a definitive, or at least sustainable, trend.

Of course not. That's why you look at the bigger picture, as I have pointed out.

But don't let any of that get you down, rabit. I'm sure some bad news is just around the corner that you can represent as part of a longer trend.

Don't let mere facts get in your way.

Posted by: rabit at October 18, 2007 09:12 PM

Because these numbers gradually are returning to the four-year average, we should see this as a sign of progress?

Yes.

Don't let mere facts get in your way.

Back at you. I've seen what's going on in one part of the country, and a nationwide drop in casualties can partially be attributed to sustainable progress in the formerly most violent province ... progress that I've seen with my eyes.

We'll see if this template works in other portions of Iraq soon enough (indications are hopeful, but VERY shaky/early), whether a further drop in casualties occurs, and I hope you wind up embarrassed about your definitive analysis. Not because of any personal satisfaction at your discomfort, rather because it will mean Iraq is actually on the mend.

And that is the important thing, right?

Right?

Posted by: Bill from INDC at October 19, 2007 02:38 PM

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Posted by: Rustie at October 31, 2007 11:02 AM

I hope you wind up embarrassed about your definitive analysis. Not because of any personal satisfaction at your discomfort, rather because it will mean Iraq is actually on the mend.

Wow, personal embarrassment? Discomfort? I'm afraid I'm not tuned to the same station your listening to. Few things would make me happier than a successful end to this war. What annoys me is all the sugarcoating that has come from the right-o-sphere since the time we stepped into Iraq, that things were going just peachy.

And that is the important thing, right?
Right?

Nope. The most important thing ABOVE ALL ELSE is honesty and clarity. Unfortunately, bullshit rules the day, it creates confusion through self-contradiction, it gets us into wars and keeps us locked in a state of panic.

Bullshitters are the people who believe the message has the power to craft the reality, and unfortunately these people have infiltrated all branches of government and apparently even the military (Petraeus' spokeman Steven Boylan being a stark example), while the honest people have been shoved out.

And as for my "definitive analysis," you are again conveniently mistaken. The only "analysis" I ever made - if it can even be called that, merely pointing out US casualty rates - is that it's way too early for Bush supporters to start patting themselves on the back. We're still at war.