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Robert Burns delivers some good news ...

The new U.S. military strategy in Iraq, unveiled six months ago to little acclaim, is working.

In two weeks of observing the U.S. military on the ground and interviewing commanders, strategists and intelligence officers, it's apparent that the war has entered a new phase in its fifth year.

... tempered by some uncomfortable reality:

It is a phase with fresh promise yet the same old worry: Iraq may be too fractured to make whole.

No matter how well or how long the U.S. military carries out its counterinsurgency mission, it cannot guarantee victory.

Only the Iraqis can. And to do so they probably need many more months of heavy U.S. military involvement. Even then, it is far from certain that they are capable of putting this shattered country together again.

Read the whole thing.

Meanwhile, negative developments in Basra echo fears about what would/will happen in the rest of the country after American withdrawal:

As British forces pull back from Basra in southern Iraq, Shiite militias there have escalated a violent battle against each other for political supremacy and control over oil resources, deepening concerns among some U.S. officials in Baghdad that elements of Iraq's Shiite-dominated national government will turn on one another once U.S. troops begin to draw down.

Three major Shiite political groups are locked in a bloody conflict that has left the city in the hands of militias and criminal gangs, whose control extends to municipal offices and neighborhood streets. The city is plagued by "the systematic misuse of official institutions, political assassinations, tribal vendettas, neighborhood vigilantism and enforcement of social mores, together with the rise of criminal mafias that increasingly intermingle with political actors," a recent report by the International Crisis Group said.

No area of Iraq is quite like another, but the prevalence of "criminal gangs" and "systematic misuse of official institutions, political assassinations [and] tribal vendettas" are pretty universal in all but Iraqi Kurdistan. I've previously highlighted this gangsterism and scarcity of civic spirit as Iraq's most pressing problems. And problematically, the best solution is a long-term American dedication and oversight that mirrors British colonialism without the absolute control, tribute and exploitation. We all know how unrealistic any such level of commitment is ...

... which leads us back to the tenuous hope that stronger Iraqi leadership emerges that can forge a federal government with a broad national identity and strong and stable Iraqi Security Forces at its command. Military progress is promising, the political landscape, at least thus far, is more than a little shaky. It's hard to overestimate the importance of developments in Iraq's political climate before the end of the year, especially the participation in and results of upcoming provincial elections.

First parting food for thought: the disintegration of Maliki's coalition may actually be a very positive thing, if it were to pave the way for a new leader who is more palatable to a broad strata of Iraqis. Unfortunately, there's the obvious question as to whether the government has the time for such metamorphosis in the finite breathing space provided by the Surge. Note that "tenuous hope" does not mean "impossible," and anyone absolutely sure about what will happen in Iraq should pay close attention to Fall 2006 predictions vs. the rapid developments in Anbar over the past year.

UPDATE: Via Instapundit, another Michael Yon piece which supports the theory that corruption and a lack of civic spirit are the most powerful obstacles in Iraq:

Two officials were engaged in a conversation about how al Qaeda was able to infiltrate trouble spots in Iraq so effectively. The illuminating exchange revealed how much of the strife in Iraq is rooted not in religious fervor, but in greed. Greed for power, greed for money.

UPDATE: Time calls for Maliki to go.

UPDATE: Post slightly edited for form, not meaning.

UPDATE: More Surge Analysis: Pollack, O'Hanlon & the Other Guy, plus Iraqi Reform from the Ground-Up

Posted by Bill at August 7, 2007 09:11 AM | TrackBack (0)