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A must-read post over at Acute Politics:

I'll try to keep writing about the winds here in Al-Anbar. I'll go out on a little bit of a limb and say that the insurgency is quickly approaching a tipping point. If things continue as they are right now, our military won't need a surge to chase the terrorists out of Anbar- the citizens will do it for us, which is as it should be. It's beginning to show already: more local tips, more police recruits (far more than anticipated), and sadly- in bigger and more desperate Al-Qaeda attacks.

At this point, a reconciled insurgent is better than a captured one, and a captured one is better than a dead one.

That is a hard fact for the military to accept.

Some are irreconcilable, having been irretrievably integrated into radical cells. But there are various brands of insurgent in Anbar, with the majority of foot soldiers recruited from the pool of local 15-24 year-old males that aim to prove their manhood in the regional tradition: by picking up kalashnikovs instead of joining football teams. Teflon Don is right: any successful strategy ultimately relies on defusing this population, which includes many insurgents switching sides as the local forces of law and order become the strong horse.

No foot soldiers and the money men - religious radical, Syrian provocateur and aspiring local capo alike - will be forced to join the better business bureau, blow town, or be ridden out on a rail.

As a regional side note: I've heard that the "Awakening" of Sunni tribes against al Qaeda has spread to Fallujah from the Ramadi area. When I was in Fallujah, the tribes were characterized as "two-faced," by several Iraqis: actively helping the insurgents while putting on a good show for the local government and Americans. At a later point during the course of my stay, I was informed that they had staked out a new position of legitimate neutrality. And now, apparently the hope of the civil servant who I interviewed has come to fruition, and the tribes are moving to the side of the police.

One caveat: tribes in Fallujah are less representative of the local population than in other parts of al-Anbar. Thus, this shift is good news, but may be of a slightly different impact and character than in Ramadi or rural areas surrounding Fallujah. That said, given that the insurgency is less animated in Fallujah because of its post-2004 status as a gated community, the allegiance of the tribes might be enough. Due to my limited knowledge of day-to-day Fallujan public opinion, I can't authoritatively predict the outcome.

Posted by Bill at March 30, 2007 01:43 PM | TrackBack (1)

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