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December 07, 2006
No Honest Brokerage with Iran and Syria (UPDATED)

Posted by Bill

The worst portion of the Iraq Study Report is its advocacy of engaging Iran and Syria to find stability. Given that those two countries have been waging a proxy war to kill Americans and Iraqis and destabilize Iraq, rewarding that effort amounts to strategic capitulation dressed up as diplomacy. Along these lines, I'll point you to an article in Time Magazine which covers Lebanon's heightening sectarian conflict amid the diminishing promise of the Cedar Revolution. The bit that caught my eye:

So why is the Cedar Revolution crashing down? Part of the answer rests outside Lebanon's borders. During the summer's war with Israel, Hizballah relied heavily on the Syrians for logistic, military and financial support. According to Israeli officials, Western diplomats in Beirut and Arab sources, Damascus acted as a conduit for Iranian weapons to reach Hizballah, allowing the group to fight the Israelis to a standstill.

Now it is payback time. Lebanese officials, along with Israeli military sources and Western diplomats, say that while Syrian President Bashar Assad may be willing to help pull the Bush Administration out of the Iraqi quicksand, he hopes to exact concessions that would allow him to treat Lebanon, where the Syrian regime has vast financial interests, as his private turf. And according to these same sources, he is unnerved by a U.N.-sponsored inquiry that implicates top Syrian officials in the February 2005 car bombing that killed former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri and 22 others. Assad is hoping that the international probe will peter out. Indictments issued by a U.N.-sponsored court against members of the Syrian leadership could critically weaken the Damascus regime and lead to U.N. sanctions against Assad's clique.

Iraq is not just Iraq. I understand the frustration (especially amongst a dour right-wing) with the war's progress sliding bloodily sideways, but the concept of horse trading with the regimes that have A) been essentially fighting us via proxies and B) are interested in America's strategic disengagement from the Middle East, including leaving other weakened regimes like Fouad Siniora's Lebanon to their thuggery, amounts to a generational defeat of regional freedom. And while yesterday's status quo may seem attractive - no Americans dying, the end to a confusing war, etc - it also replants the seeds of terror (dueling dictatorship and religion) and sets the world up for graver conflict down the road. Theoretically, talks with Iran and Syria aren't out of the question, but the US needs the position to approach such engagement carrying far more stick than hat.

To wit, Henry Kissinger via Bruce Kesler:

A diplomacy that excludes adversaries is clearly a contradiction in terms. But the argument on behalf of negotiating too often focuses on the opening of talks rather than their substance. The fact of talks is assumed to represent a psychological breakthrough. The relief supplied by a change of atmosphere is bound to be temporary, however. Diplomacy - especially with an adversary - can succeed only if it brings about a balance of interests. Failing that, it runs the risks of turning into an alibi for procrastination or a palliative to ease the process of defeat without, however, eliminating the consequences of defeat ...

UPDATE: Bryan Preston:

Since when did the United States or any country wage war by publishing its plans or suggested plans for all the world to see? Since when did the United States or any country let its enemies see internal deliberations and strategic pivots, and since when did we think our enemies shared our interests, either in one war theater or on a more broad strategic plane? Since when did we wage war by a geriatric committee of has-beens and shady Washington insiders? Since when has there been anything to talk about with the world's two worst remaining terrorist states?

And the NY Post:

IRAQ 'APPEASE' SQUEEZE ON W.

Posted by Bill at December 7, 2006 08:10 AM | TrackBack (2)

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Comments

Talking is fine, but you also need the stick. Let Israel go after Hezbollah, and sic the US Marines on Sadr. After those thugs get bloodied up pretty well, then talk to their sponsors.

Posted by: rbj at December 7, 2006 09:22 AM

This is the part I keep coming back to:

Diplomacy - especially with an adversary - can succeed only if it brings about a balance of interests.

Posted by: tee bee [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 7, 2006 12:56 PM