Return to Ramadi (11/27/06):

Even the Los Angeles Times--hardly pro-war or pro-Bush--in an October 5 article reported that local tribes are mad as hell about the insurgency and are not going to take it anymore. It observed that Abdul Jabber Hakkam, spokesman for a coalition of 11 tribes in Al Anbar, was saying locals were capturing and executing the anti-Iraqi forces on their own initiative. "People have done this with their own personal weapons," he said. "Now each house that hosts a terrorist, they will force all the residents of the house outside, so they're on the streets." When that is done, he predicted, the insurgents will "have no one to keep them, and they will withdraw." Further, said Hakkam, "we are not just targeting al Qaeda, but terrorists in general, because people miss real stability and freedom." Importantly, he not only urged the locals to work with the tribes, but also said the tribes need to work closely with the government in Baghdad.

If you're thinking this doesn't reflect doomsaying media interpretations of Marine Col. Peter Devlin's unreleased August intelligence report indicating there's no functioning government in the Anbar, you're right.

Anbar: The Abu Soda Tribe vs. al-Qaeda (11/26/06):

The 25 tribes of the Anbar Salvation Council and Al-Qaeda in Iraq have been battling it out since the tribes have committed to work with the Iraqi government and U.S. military in western Iraq. Over the weekend, the Abu Soda tribe, one of the members of the Anbar Salvation Council, fought alongside U.S. force against al-Qaeda in Iraq in the Sofia neighborhood of Ramadi.

Al Qaeda's Last Stand in Anbar (11/24/2006)

Al Qaeda knows it's losing its battle for western Iraq, which is one reason why they have shifted so many resources, especially cash and leadership, to Afghanistan. The al Qaeda defeat in western Iraq has not gotten much attention in the media, but it's there, it's real and it will soon be over.

The Anbar Tribes vs. al-Qaeda, Continued (11/22/06):

Lost in the current debate over Iraq - civil war or sectarian violence, success or failure, increasing troops or strategic redeployment, victory or defeat - is the sea-change occurring in western Iraq. The U.S. military has coaxed a large majority of the Sunnis of Anbar province, perhaps one of the most sympathetic groups to al-Qaeda in the Middle East, to turn on al-Qaeda.

Fighting back: the city determined not to become al-Qaeda's capital (11/20/06):

While the world's attention has been focused on Baghdad's slide into sectarian warfare, something remarkable has been happening in Ramadi, a city of 400,000 inhabitants that al-Qaeda and its Iraqi allies have controlled since mid-2004 and would like to make the capital of their cherished Islamic caliphate.

A power struggle has erupted: al-Qaeda’s reign of terror is being challenged. Sheik Sittar and many of his fellow tribal leaders have cast their lot with the once-reviled US military.

Anbar Rising (10/5/06):

That's a glimpse of Iraq rarely seen in western media. The rift between al-Anbar's chieftains (who once welcomed al-Qaeda fighters into their towns) and those now-despised foreigners has been growing for some time - and the strength and resolve of the chieftains has increased too, to the point where statements humiliating the once-feared terrorist leadership are now made in person, before the entire nation, in prime-time. They may pay for that show of courage with their lives, but it may be too late to turn the tide back in favor of their would-be assassins.

Anbar Tribes vs. al-Qaeda (9/29/06):

Less than two weeks after 25 of the 31 predominately Sunni tribes in Anbar Province pledged to fight al-Qaeda and support the Shiite led government of Prime Minister Maliki, the tribes have taken a shot against al-Qaeda fighters. Reuters reports five al-Qaeda were captured in the city of Ramadi, "including three foreign fighters from Yemen."

Drawing the Battlelines in Anbar (9/19/06):

The New York Times reported over the weekend that 25 of the province's 31 tribes have organized to oppose the insurgency and al-Qaeda.

The tribes are said to be able to comprise "30,000 young men armed with assault rifles who were willing to confront and kill the insurgents and criminal gangs that have torn at the fabric of tribal life in Anbar." Sheik Abdul Sattar Buzaigh Al-Rishawi, the chief of the Rishawi tribe, said "the insurgents counted about 1,300 fighters, many of them foreigners." Al-Rishawi explains the process was long and the 25 tribes agree the insurgents and al-Qaeda are harming Sunnis and Shiites in Iraq.

Arm tribes to fight al-Qaeda, say Sunnis (9/13/06):

Resentment of al-Qaeda militants among tribes and other insurgent groups has erupted into violence periodically since spring 2005. Over the past year the anger has led to a permanent rift and constant fighting in the western province that borders Syria, Jordan and Saudi Arabia. “There is a struggle between people of al-Anbar province and some of the [militant] organisations working there, but the Americans are not taking seriously the people’s efforts to make peace,” said Ayad al-Samarrai, the No 2 official in the Islamic Party, the largest Iraqi Sunni party.

What to believe? I'm sure that the full Marine intelligence report and the above perspectives can co-exist on the same plane of reality, but the narrative about Al Qaeda losing influence and capability seems dominant vs. the interpretation that AQ's power is waxing or static. Granted, the tribes may not represent the sentiment of the entire populace, but 25 of 31 in an area with almost no tradition of cohesive central governance is certainly significant, and Al Qaeda has a history of quickly wearing out its welcome via a bloody brand of Sharia. To wit, from 2004:

Since two of Muthar's brothers and four of his cousins - all members in a family trucking cooperative - were tortured and murdered in the resistance stronghold three weeks ago, he's changed his mind about how the US handled Fallujah.

"They should have done whatever it took to take that place over,'' Muthar says. "It's been left in the hands of people who call themselves Muslims but they're not. They're simply inhuman."

UPDATE: More from Dan Rhiel and Prairie Pundit.

UPDATE: Bob Owens:

I can't say that this morning's Dafna Linzer/Thomas Ricks article Anbar Picture Grows Clearer, and Bleaker in the Washington Post comes as a surprise considering the overall tone of their reporting on the War in Iraq, but this article, based on an update of selectively-released elements of a previous classified report that many feel was taken out of context, seems to run counter to what many others are seeing in the same area of Iraq.