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September 06, 2006
On the Accuracy of "The Path to 9/11"

Posted by Dorkafork

There is a bit of controversy about one scene in particular. Here's a description of the scene by Rush Limbaugh (according to ThinkProgress):

So the CIA, the Northern Alliance, surrounding a house where bin Laden is in Afghanistan, they're on the verge of capturing, but they need final approval from the Clinton administration in order to proceed.

So they phoned Washington. They phoned the White House. Clinton and his senior staff refused to give authorization for the capture of bin Laden because they're afraid of political fallout if the mission should go wrong, and if civilians were harmed... Now, the CIA agent in this is portrayed as being astonished. "Are you kidding?" He asked Berger over and over, "Is this really what you guys want?"

Berger then doesn't answer after giving his first admonition, "You guys go in on your own. If you go in we're not sanctioning this, we're not approving this," and Berger just hangs up on the agent after not answering any of his questions.

ThinkProgress attempts to "rebut" this with a response from Richard Clarke:

ThinkProgress has obtained a response to this scene from Richard Clarke, former counterterrorism czar for Bush I, Clinton and Bush II, and now counterterrorism adviser to ABC:
1. Contrary to the movie, no US military or CIA personnel were on the ground in Afghanistan and saw bin Laden.

2. Contrary to the movie, the head of the Northern Alliance, Masood, was no where near the alleged bin Laden camp and did not see UBL.

3. Contrary to the movie, the CIA Director actually said that he could not recommend a strike on the camp because the information was single sourced and we would have no way to know if bin Laden was in the target area by the time a cruise missile hit it.

In short, this scene - which makes the incendiary claim that the Clinton administration passed on a surefire chance to kill or catch bin Laden - never happened. It was completely made up by Nowrasteh. (emphasis added)

I say "rebut", because Clarke's three points don't effectively support the argument that the incident was "completely made up." Rush Limbaugh's description made no mention of anyone "seeing" OBL, or of Masood, or of a cruise missile strike. (Clarke may of course be describing errors that are present in the series, they just don't support that final contention.)

That doesn't mean we can't cut them a little slack. Even Dean Barnett of Townhall.com didn't recognize the incident. What the scene is most likely describing is the story of "Mike" from Chapter 4 of the 9/11 Commission Report:

"Mike" thought the capture plan was "the perfect operation." It required minimum infrastructure. The plan had now been modified so that the tribals would keep Bin Ladin in a hiding place for up to a month before turning him over to the United States-thereby increasing the chances of keeping the U.S. hand out of sight. "Mike" trusted the information from the Afghan network; it had been corroborated by other means, he told us. The lead CIA officer in the field, Gary Schroen, also had confidence in the tribals. In a May 6 cable to CIA headquarters, he pronounced their planning "almost as professional and detailed . . . as would be done by any U.S. military special operations element." He and the other officers who had worked through the plan with the tribals judged it "about as good as it can be." (By that, Schroen explained, he meant that the chance of capturing or killing Bin Ladin was about 40 percent.)
...
On May 20, Director Tenet discussed the high risk of the operation with Berger and his deputies, warning that people might be killed, including Bin Ladin. Success was to be defined as the exfiltration of Bin Ladin out of Afghanistan.28 A meeting of principals was scheduled for May 29 to decide whether the operation should go ahead.

The principals did not meet. On May 29, "Jeff" informed "Mike" that he had just met with Tenet, Pavitt, and the chief of the Directorate's Near Eastern Division. The decision was made not to go ahead with the operation. "Mike" cabled the field that he had been directed to "stand down on the operation for the time being." He had been told, he wrote, that cabinet-level officials thought the risk of civilian casualties-"collateral damage"-was too high. They were concerned about the tribals' safety, and had worried that "the purpose and nature of the operation would be subject to unavoidable misinterpretation and misrepresentation-and probably recriminations-in the event that Bin Ladin, despite our best intentions and efforts, did not survive."29

Impressions vary as to who actually decided not to proceed with the operation. Clarke told us that the CSG saw the plan as flawed. He was said to have described it to a colleague on the NSC staff as "half-assed" and predicted that the principals would not approve it. "Jeff " thought the decision had been made at the cabinet level. Pavitt thought that it was Berger's doing, though perhaps on Tenet's advice. Tenet told us that given the recommendation of his chief operations officers, he alone had decided to "turn off" the operation. He had simply informed Berger, who had not pushed back. Berger's recollection was similar. He said the plan was never presented to the White House for a decision.30

There are differences in the series' reported portrayal of the event. Tenet canceled the operation, "Mike" got word of the cancellation from "Jeff" instead of Berger, and it doesn't sound like "Mike" was in Afghanistan when he found out.

So in a discussion of factual accuracy, those are certainly important. Of course, you'd still be left with the fact that an operation to capture or kill OBL was squashed either by the DCI or Clinton's cabinet, for reasons that in retrospect seem inadequate.

Before it was canceled, Schroen described it as the "best plan we are going to come up with to capture [Bin Ladin] while he is in Afghanistan and bring him to justice."31 No capture plan before 9/11 ever again attained the same level of detail and preparation. The tribals' reported readiness to act diminished. And Bin Ladin's security precautions and defenses became more elaborate and formidable.

At this time, 9/11 was more than three years away. It was the duty of Tenet and the CIA leadership to balance the risks of inaction against jeopardizing the lives of their operatives and agents. And they had reason to worry about failure: millions of dollars down the drain; a shoot-out that could be seen as an assassination; and, if there were repercussions in Pakistan, perhaps a coup. The decisions of the U.S. government in May 1998 were made, as Berger has put it, from the vantage point of the driver looking through a muddy windshield moving forward, not through a clean rearview mirror.32

Posted by Dorkafork at September 6, 2006 03:32 PM | TrackBack (4)

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Comments

I don't care very much one way or another about a made-for-TV movie, but it does bother me a tad when we seperate the Bushes by using roman numerals, as if they were kings.

I think i'm too easily bothered.

Posted by: Foster at September 6, 2006 05:11 PM

I was going to make a joke about Sandy Berger's pants, but now it doesn't seem that funny. Is this the substance of the handwritten notes he risked everything to destroy?

It had to be something pretty damning.

Posted by: TallDave at September 7, 2006 10:10 AM

Is this the substance of the handwritten notes he risked everything to destroy?

Probably not.

Sandy Berger's in a tight spot. If I were him, I'd probably be upset at the dramatic license taken with my portrayal. On the other hand, I wouldn't be in any rush to bring more attention to the events in question.

Posted by: dorkafork at September 7, 2006 01:44 PM

Hmm, that does seem to destroy the idea Berger was hiding something. OTOH, it makes his actions completely inexplicable.

I guess this is one of those cases where we'll have to remember not to attrbute to malice what can be explained by stupidity.

Posted by: TallDave at September 7, 2006 03:47 PM

Dorkafork- great link. I never knew that they at least had an inkling of what Berger took/destroyed, let alone had that level of detail... I thought it was still unknown.

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