« Goldstein Does Vent | Main | This »

I just finished re-reading Fareed Zakaria's essential effort, "The Future of Freedom: Illiberal Democracy at Home and Abroad." It's a must read for anyone generally interested in political science, the spread of sustainable Democracy and those concerned with the threat from and political stagnation of the Middle East. I don't endorse all of his conclusions (merely 99%), but I'd love to excerpt the entire thing. I'll restrain myself:

Globalization has caught the Arab world[*] at a bad demographic moment. Its societies are going through a massive youth bulge; more than half the Arab world is under the age of twenty-five. Fully 75 percent of Saudi Arabia is under the age of 30. A bulge of restless young men in any country is bad news. Almost all crime in every society is committed by men between the ages of fifteen and twenty-five. Lock all young men up, one social scientist pointed out, and violent crime would drop by more than 95 percent. (that is why the socialization of young men - in schools, colleges, and camps - has been one of the chief challenges for civilized societies.) When accompanied by even small economic and social change, a youth bulge produces a new politics of protest. In the past, societies in these circumstances have fallen prey to a search for revolutionary solutions. France went through a youth bulge just before the French Revolution in 1789, as did Iran before its revolution in 1979. Even the United States had a youth bulge that peaked in 1968, the year of the country's strongest social protests since the Great Depression. In the case of the Arab world, this upheaval has taken the form of a religious resurgence.

Zakaria goes on to explain how repressive societies - perfectly embodied by the regimes of the Middle East - essentially destroy the institutions that compete with the government, removing both the systemic hedges on a ruler's absolute power and the alternate vehicles for the people to exercise political power. But there is one institution with the prominence to always defy any ban and flourish despite the region's autocratic purges: religion. And the expression of Islam lacks the organizational status or coherence of historically influential institutions like the Catholic or Episcopalian churches; it's a remarkably decentralized religion, where any individual sufficiently charismatic and knowledgable can claim authority and establish a following and interpretation.

Looking at the ingredients to this political and social paradigm - failed governments that are repressive, no competing institutions or vehicles for political expression except for faith, a decentralized religion susceptible to splintered appeals utilizing charismatic populism and aggression, a massive youth bulge that correlates with the politics of protest, the natural aggression of religious fundamentalism, along with elements in Islamic scripture that buttress this aggression, and an oil welfare state that stymies the development of a business class and civil institutions that assert self-interest and provide an alternate path for young men - goes a long way towards explaining the present dysfunction and violent threat from these societies.

Essentially, the failed repressive societies are boiling the water and closing the lid to the tea pot, and the rise of Islamic fundamentalism is the whistling jet of steam escaping from the spout.

A couple of solutions are interesting (the first one is unserious, really used as a point of discussion):

1. Let the Islamists take power and they'll lose their appeal. In societies where the fundamentalists have gained absolute authority, they become unpopular, as the populace starts to reject a new ruling class that fails to govern effectively ("Throw the bums out!", Islamic style) and runs into the reality rather than the theory of living under conservative Sharia rule. Obviously this "solution" is untenable, as we can't wait a generation for an uncertain outcome, given the flattening hierarchies to destructive technologies and the political tensions and instabilities that would explode with a resurgence of ruling Islamists. While endorsing this option is unserious, its possibility is not - were free elections held in most countries of the Middle East today, Islamist political parties would claim the lion's share of power.

2. Scale down number one: push these countries to enact political reforms that slowly release the pressure by opening avenues to political engagment. Market economic and social reforms will stimulate the development of institutions and interests independent from both the absolute authority of the government and religious fundamentalism, and granting careful permissions for Islamists to engage in the political process - to a limited degree - may relieve the violent rebellion while forcing them to moderate or fail in the context of governance's realities. Nothing diminishes a group's romantic appeal like engaging in politics. Various commenters have noted this potential regarding Hamas's electoral success in the Palestinian territories. (Please note that a reference to engaged Islamists does not include currently bloodthirsty players like Al-Qaeda, groups lent power by the dysfunction described above)

Anyhow, I've insufficiently tried to summarize a small group of concepts from a brilliant book, so I suggest you pick it up and read the complete argument for yourself.

And if reforms in the broken regimes of the Middle East fail, given the stunning youth demographics, there's always plan B:

Trance just might save the world.

* Note that of course Zakaria understands the difference between "Arab" and "Persian," yet applies many of the arguments to Iran as well as the region encompassing Arab ethnicity. But overall, Iran is undergoing the opposite trend from much of the Middle East - its youth are now bristling against a the rule of a successful theocratic insurgency, rather than embracing theocracy to rebel against failed Arab Nationalists and dictators. The scenerio in "solution" one is playing out. Much too slowly, and with limited success.

Posted by Bill at August 28, 2006 09:40 AM | TrackBack (10)

Trackback Pings

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.indcjournal.com/cgi-bin/mt/dafrules/tapaz.cgi/2711

Comments

Posted by: Flea at August 28, 2006 11:41 AM

Posted by: Bill from INDC at August 28, 2006 12:14 PM

Posted by: Scott at August 28, 2006 10:03 PM

Posted by: matoko-chan at August 29, 2006 08:42 AM

Posted by: karel at October 17, 2006 05:50 AM

Posted by: tester at October 19, 2006 06:04 PM

Posted by: kranik at October 20, 2006 06:11 PM

Posted by: tester at October 25, 2006 04:54 AM

Posted by: tabletka at October 31, 2006 01:36 PM

Posted by: tester at November 6, 2006 11:34 AM

Posted by: kolyma at November 6, 2006 04:14 PM

Posted by: ebony ass at November 10, 2006 03:46 PM

Posted by: low cost insurance at November 13, 2006 02:02 PM

Posted by: converter down at November 17, 2006 11:09 AM

Posted by: buy cheap viagra at November 19, 2006 09:31 PM

Posted by: Harry at November 21, 2006 09:51 PM

Posted by: Harry at November 21, 2006 09:52 PM

Posted by: cialis drug at November 25, 2006 04:32 AM

Posted by: girl at November 25, 2006 11:25 PM

Posted by: nude at November 27, 2006 01:43 PM

Posted by: buy tramadol online at November 28, 2006 03:40 PM

Posted by: florida health insurance information at November 29, 2006 09:27 AM

Posted by: Sander at November 29, 2006 11:54 AM

Posted by: Helegor at November 29, 2006 12:19 PM

Posted by: fast size at December 12, 2006 03:29 AM

Posted by: shorturl at December 20, 2006 06:30 AM

Posted by: cekgnxl vjwln at March 9, 2007 05:30 AM

Posted by: Cellphone at April 12, 2007 06:43 PM

Posted by: Terrance Ledbetter at April 16, 2007 07:48 AM

Posted by: Terrance Ledbetter at April 16, 2007 07:49 AM

Posted by: Terrance Ledbetter at April 16, 2007 07:49 AM

Posted by: Darryl Caban at April 16, 2007 05:12 PM

Posted by: Darryl Caban at April 16, 2007 05:12 PM

Posted by: Darryl Caban at April 16, 2007 05:13 PM

Posted by: Alejandro Marler at April 17, 2007 03:28 AM

Posted by: Alejandro Marler at April 17, 2007 03:29 AM