« "I'm speaking of 'the latte biscotti crowd' - they are simple background chatter, men ..." | Main | AP on babalu »

*** There seems to be a building consensus that Hezbollah is punching above its past and projected weight:

The incident is just one among dozens of examples of an enemy that has proven more resilient and better-equipped than Israeli military forces anticipated. After nearly four weeks of air attacks and ground combat, Israeli military officials say that they have killed only a small fraction of Hezbollah's fighters and that the group still has hundreds of launchers and thousands of rockets at its disposal.

"What we face is an infantry division with state-of-the-art weaponry -- night-vision gear, advanced rifles, well-equipped -- deployed along our border," said Brig. Gen. Yossi Kuperwasser, who until last month was director of analysis for Israeli military intelligence. "They have some of the most advanced antitank missiles in the world."

There are many potential competing narratives here: Hezbollah's actual capability, the media's obsessive focus on the difficulties of any Western offensive, the media's love affair with the power of guerilla warfare, the complaints and descriptions of hardship by the men on the ground, the desire of Israeli senior officers to downplay the perception that Israel is using disproportionate force against a weak enemy, and the truth - which may or may not be accurately encapsulated in some or all of those narratives. But cutting through the clutter is the idea that Hezbollah - despite their tendency to use civilians as shields and targets - is fighting more like a trained, regular army. Bill Roggio:

We began discussing Hezbollah's military capabilities on July 21, after it became clear during the ambush of the Golani Brigade forced the unit to retreat near Maroun al-Ras that Hezbollah was not your average militia. On that date we noted "Hezbollah also possesses mortars, RPGs, anti-tank and anti-personnel mines, anti-tank missiles and possibly surface to air missiles.... Hezbollah is using infantry tactics and fighting at the squad and platoon level." The IDF's slow advance (over two days) into Bint Jubayl and the ambush on a tank unit were clear indications of Hezbollah's abilities to stand up to the IDF as well as the IDF's cautious nature on the battlefield. Yesterday we confirmed Hezbollah is fighting at the company level, has specialized units (mortars, antitank, logistics, etc.) in its combat units and is using sophisticated communications equipment, body armor and other gear.

This is not to say the IDF cannot defeat Hezbollah's army on the battlefield; the IDF can, and has done so at Maroun al-Ras, Bint Jubayl and elsewhere. But this comes at a cost in casualties, a cost the Israeli government seems unwilling to pay.

*** A must-read analysis of Iraq and the wider war from Grim at Blackfive: "Where Are We Going?"

I suspect that we will one day speak of the war in Iraq the way we speak of the Spanish Civil War -- that is, rarely by comparison to the greater war that followed it. Peace is not in the cards. Things are going to get worse. Our enemies are glad to employ terrorists, who will try to bring the war to our homes. The wise man will prepare his sword, and the arm that may wield it.

Read the rest for the presumptions that led to this depressing conclusion.

*** Switching gears, the addition of Dennis Miller almost just might possibly maybe make me tune in to Hannity and Colmes.

Nah.

(Via AoS)

*** And just to avoid leaving you with dire predictions of WW III and a mental image of Alan Colmes' basilisk gaze, a congratulatory INDC Journal Announcement:

Dorkafork has joined the Denver Rodeo.

dorkafork adds: Thus proving that a trained monkey could write for INDCJournal.

Posted by Bill at August 8, 2006 08:05 AM | TrackBack (3)

Trackback Pings

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.indcjournal.com/cgi-bin/mt/dafrules/tapaz.cgi/2688

Comments

Posted by: Foster at August 8, 2006 11:13 AM

Posted by: TIM C at August 14, 2006 06:57 PM

Posted by: levitra levitra at November 14, 2006 07:10 AM