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Freakaendocrinology
Posted by Bill Rape has been in sharp decline over the past two decades (emphasis mine): The number of rapes per capita in the United States has plunged by more than 85 percent since the 1970s, and reported rape fell last year even while other violent offenses increased, according to federal crime data. I'd suggest at least two avenues of investigation. Posted by Bill at June 19, 2006 02:43 PM | TrackBack (4) Trackback PingsTrackBack URL for this entry: CommentsAre you suggesting environmental estrogen is responsible for lowering the incidence of rape (assumedly by altering male sex urges?) If true, this would be a good thing, no? Posted by: Carin at June 19, 2006 03:27 PM I'd be more inclined to accept the aging population hypothesis. That was the explanation favored in _Freakonomics_ for the decline in overall violent crime. Posted by: Phil Smith at June 19, 2006 03:41 PM Are you suggesting environmental estrogen is responsible for lowering the incidence of rape (assumedly by altering male sex urges?) If true, this would be a good thing, no? I'd stop short of really suggesting it, so much as suggesting it as a possible avenue of investigation. Yes, if this were true, it would be a "good thing" in terms of lower incidence of rape, but not necessarily a good thing overall. Many things are a mixed bag, especially related to bioevolutionary behavior vs. desired cultural standards for behavior. A similar question could be asked about Freakonomics' famous connection between the overall crime rate and the availability of abortion. As rare as this may be in the blogosphere, my point isn't to render any larger opinion, other than outlining a research wrinkle. Posted by: Bill from INDC at June 19, 2006 03:46 PM I'd be more inclined to accept the aging population hypothesis. That was the explanation favored in _Freakonomics_ for the decline in overall violent crime. Cool. I just borrowed Freakonomics, but actually hadn't read that yet. As for you being more inclined, why? I searched for a cite to show that average testosterone levels are believed to be in decline - because I've read that they are - but couldn't find one. One thing that is well documented is how girls are entering puberty at earlier and earlier ages, and a line of presumption is that environmental estrogens are a factor. Given that in men, estrogen-like substances emasculate the sex drive and suppress testosterone, among other things, both in a permanent sense when influencing fetal development and in a transitory sense during ongoing, acute exposure, it seems like a potentially relevant line of thought to me. Posted by: Bill from INDC at June 19, 2006 03:51 PM It would be interesting to see a chart comparing "# of rapes per capita" to "# of years actually spent in jail" for conviction in a rape case. Think there's a correlation? Posted by: Kevin at June 19, 2006 04:10 PM Possibly, yeah. Posted by: Bill from INDC at June 19, 2006 04:22 PM It's not that I have any kind of expertise -- just opinionating is all. "It's the kind of explanation that is favored in Freakonomics" is probably a better formulation of what I was trying to say anyway. Which, if you haven't read it yet, is the kind of thing that the authors would verbally and hilariously kneecap someone for saying. And frankly, now that I think about it (instead of just popping off), I might not be remembering the argument correctly at all. My copy is at the house, and I'm at the office. Posted by: Phil Smith at June 19, 2006 04:36 PM I'll check when I get home. Posted by: Bill from INDC at June 19, 2006 04:50 PM The Freakonomics authors have a blog, too. Posted by: dorkafork at June 19, 2006 05:12 PM I've been inclined to accept the theory that the early arrival of menses in girls is due to a diet higher in fat. Skinny girls do NOT get their period as early. Heavier girls get breasts earlier. Women who don't get enough fat (runners) stop getting their period. As for men, well, if my husband is any indication, I see no proof of declining sex drive. If his libido is "reduced" due to environmental estrogen, then I say thank GOD for it. I do need to rest occasionally. Posted by: Carin at June 19, 2006 05:18 PM I've been inclined to accept the theory that the early arrival of menses in girls is due to a diet higher in fat. That is another possible explanation - in addition to the sex-hormone stimulation of a fat-laden diet itself (dietary cholesterol may be fuel for certain hormones, for example), environmental triggers may include the hormones that are given to the animals we eat before they are killed, cut up and put on the table. And the estrogens as industrial by-products, pesticides etc., that I'm talking about wind up accumulating in that animal fat too. Skinny girls do NOT get their period as early. Anemia and/or malnutrition will delay menstruation, before, during and after puberty, and girls that don't get the flood of sex hormones can be skinny because of the fact that they haven't gotten a flood of sex hormones. Thus: cart, horse? Lots of potential angles, too many to simply say that caloric aspect of diet itself is the ultimate factor in cases of early puberty. As for men, well, if my husband is any indication, I see no proof of declining sex drive. If his libido is "reduced" due to environmental estrogen, then I say thank GOD for it. I do need to rest occasionally. Hooo-kay. One thing - if environmental estrogens were responsible, the greatest impact would supposedly happen during fetal development, blunting the full potential of sexual differentiation. So unless he's 20 years old, assuming my wild, curious causality is true, he may have escaped the dreaded emasculation of pesticides. But if he's bothering you that much, start feeding him lots of soy. Sprinkled with pesticide. Also, as a counter example, take dorkafork: he's 28 years-old and still waiting for his balls to drop. He sings mezzo-soprano in his wiccan choir. His stage name is "the Colorado Castrato." Posted by: Bill from INDC at June 19, 2006 06:07 PM Dorka, I had no idea ...{{{{{hugs]]]]]] Posted by: Carin at June 19, 2006 06:19 PM I'm starting to worry. Is there some sort of 'Environmental Estrogen Warming' scenario going on? If so, I'm worried for the world, but... Dibs on the movie rights! Posted by: Kevin at June 19, 2006 06:41 PM Now THAT'S a movie I'd pay to see! Posted by: The Fastest Squirrel at June 19, 2006 07:52 PM Uh. . . so you're saying this has little to do with the widespread use of DNA testing? Posted by: Foster at June 19, 2006 07:56 PM It seems to me they might want to investigate what influence porn may have had. We've been told by feminists for all of my life that the objectification of women caused by porn would lead to more rapes, but in the past 25 years porn has become widely and confidentially available for the first time in history and the incidence of rape has decreased. Maybe porn provides an outlet that reduces their urges to some managable level? I know I sure wouldn't find it hard to believe that having all the porn in the world available on the internet when they get home might make at least some would-be date rapists less likely to decide no means yes. Posted by: SeanH at June 19, 2006 09:51 PM Now you're thinking. Posted by: Bill from INDC at June 19, 2006 10:05 PM C'mon -- wouldn't one of the biggest "environmental" estrogens be ever-younger teens taking birth control pills? Haven't seen anyone put this possibility front & center (even if just to knock it down.) (No, this doesn't address the "guy" angle whatsoever, but today's junior high-school girls are - ahem - shaped a lot different from my healthy, well-fed '60's & '70's classmates.) Posted by: Steck at June 19, 2006 10:19 PM When we're talking about early puberty, we're talking 7,8 years old. Posted by: Bill from INDC at June 20, 2006 01:03 AM I can't believe that Take Back the Night Rallies are not in the Top 5 causes in the decline of rapes. For shame! Everyone knows college folk walking around with signs and banners raises awareness, which in turn...um...well, I can't prove it, but I think it works. I swear. Posted by: Chris at June 20, 2006 09:23 AM Menses at that age is really rare, but the onset of secondary sexual characteristics can begin at 8 or 9 in some girls. Menses onset dropped dramatically from the 1800 to 1950's but since then it's been about the same (stuck around age 12). Although girls are getting their bumps younger. Here it is suggested that African American girls mature earlier. Judging by some girls that live down the street from me, I might concur, but that is -of course- unscientific. Posted by: Carin at June 20, 2006 10:48 AM Are more women carrying concealed weapons and is it becuase were getting tougher with rapists like perhapes giving them life in prison? Posted by: BIRDZILLA at June 20, 2006 11:01 AM Is there some sort of 'Environmental Estrogen Warming' scenario going on? "Global Girling"? Posted by: Dave at June 20, 2006 11:24 AM It's the pig in the python, the boomers are moving out of their adolescent years. It's the freackonomics angle. Who commits the most violent crime? Males age 18-40, who has the highest fertility rate? Women 16-35. Demographically a huge % of the current population is moving out of these age group so all the issues related crime and sex are now being replaced with an increase in the use of Metamucil. Posted by: Rick DeMent at June 20, 2006 11:33 AM I'll give you a third one: the availability of sex itself. Up until the Sexual Revolutiion women tended to "hold out" until marriage in America. Frustrated males were more likely to go farther than the girl would allow. Now girls aren't as concerned about marriage, they're more sexualized than ever before (thanks, Madonna!) and are more willing to engage in casual sex as part of a relationship. IE., they're saying, "Yes" more often than their mothers and grandmothers said, "No". Violent rape, aka, "the guy jumps out from behind a bush with a knife" is probably about as prevalent as ever, if not somewhat moreso because of the same sexualization of the youth. But there are still fewer cases of nonconsensual sex than before overall because girls are increasingly likely to agree to casual sex. 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