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« I Am Back, For Now | Main | Updates on the NSA Program » May 18, 2006
NSA Data Mining Series: Modeling at War, Uhhh! Good God Yeah, What is it Good For?
Posted by Bill Absolutely "something?" (For lack of time, I'm breaking up a larger examination of the NSA data mining program into smaller posts) First, let's be clear: no one knows exactly what this program is intended to do, much less its specific methodology. In the first point of my previous post, I took a speculative stab and partially whiffed, as I was applying my experience with how the private sector uses data mining to target market, with the assumption that instead of identifying willing consumers, the effort was trying to identify terrorists via behaviorial modeling, with little specific info. Such a strategy would not only face the efficacy challenges of trying to definitively identify such a small population of people, but would bring the program closer to running afoul of privacy concerns and violations, given a goal of identifying specific individuals and who they called, as well as potentially basing an act of further investigation on the imprecision of behavioral data models, which measure statistical tendencies within given populations and aren't oracles of indiviual behavior. But if I was wrong in some of my angles and assumptions, I may have been warm in others; plus, a completely unthought of application for the database might have little to do with violating anyone's privacy. Histrionic cover aside ("Does this man have your phone number?"), Time magazine has a surprisingly great, concise round-up of most of the issues surrounding the program (you must have a subscription or watch ads to get to content, unfortunately). Regarding its purpose: Officials insist that the NSA is not eavesdropping on the millions of law-abiding Americans whose phone records it has collected but merely compiling what the telephone companies refer to as "call detail" information, recording what number called what number, when and for how long. "It's just digits," insists a White House official. "Just a bunch of data, a bunch of numbers." But while the information that is being turned over to the government does not include the identities of those who own the phone numbers on either end of a call, that is often easy enough to figure out through publicly available search engines, including Google. This somewhat mirrors the second speculative theory in my previous post; more on this in a minute. It's an aspect of the program that certainly may run afoul of privacy statutes, specifically detailed in dorkafork's last post on the legal angle. But in addition to that analytical avenue, there might be an even more benign, strictly anonymous application to data mining calls: That data can be extremely useful, even if you never know who is on the other end of the phones," says Bryan Cunningham, an ex-CIA lawyer and former deputy legal adviser to the National Security Council in the Bush White House. "You can create all kinds of early-warning systems once you understand the patterns. You can tell the computers: You tell me when they make the following kinds of phone calls, because that tells me I've got to do something to disrupt an attack." Says Richard Falkenrath, who was deputy homeland security adviser in the White House during Bush's first term: "I was a consumer of link analysis that may well have been informed by this collection effort. I didn't know how they were getting it, but I'm glad they were getting it." This reminds me of the "terrorist chatter" you hear about on the news; in addition to the NSA's warrantless monitoring of the content of specific calls to suspected foreign parties (to be repetitively clear, a distinct program from data mining of domestic phone records), the NSA could be analyzing the mere US phone activity that surrounds terrorist attacks. Simply put, a historical analysis of periods of "normal" activity is compared against the activity that took place in a window just prior to an actual attack (carried out or prevented), activities during windows of time just prior to actual attacks are analyzed vs. each other, and pretty soon you get a model of domestic telephone activity that simply, anonymously tells you when an attack is more likely to be imminent. From a legal defense perspective, it would be hard to characterize such an effort as violating anyone's privacy if the data is merely used to predict events - and never tied back to the identities of individual citizens. With regards to link analysis identifying specific terrorists and who they call - again, mentioned in both the Time article and point two of my previous post - the program becomes legally dicier, because you are de-anonymizing the analysis of numbers and could easily run afoul of the privacy of a citizen with no ties to terrorism. That doesn't necessarily make it an irrevocably bad idea. If the government is aware that "(212) 555-1234" is the cellphone of a Manhattan rug merchant who moonlights as an Al Qaeda sleeper, I'd think it might be to our benefit to not only obtain his phone records by subpeona (the classic way to look at who he's calling), but also contextually analyze who he calls calls, and who they call, and who they call, etc. Patterns and lines of investigation may well emerge with that first key piece of human intelligence, followed by contextual link analysis. A previously mentioned challenge to both of these types of analysis remains: many terrorists and planners don't use the same phones consistently or use them at all. But some very well may. And simple coded telephone calls that merely take place, regardless of indecipherable content, in addition to any bursts of calls that might occur due to information's notorious tendency to leak prior to an event (a flurry of calls from indirectly knowledgeable individuals in anticipation of a pending attack) might be enough to create a discernible, predictive pattern; might be enough for at least the first model to say, "looks like there's a chance that something is going to go down." We can point out the challenges to this analysis all day, but: 1. If terrorists do avoid phones to avoid detection, the existence of such a program has helped shut down a fairly convenient form of communication. No point in making terrorism, you know, easy. 2. The failure of a call-monitoring program is dependent on the operational secrecy of a given terrorist network and their knowledge of the program's existence (d'oh!). But operational security breaks down sometimes - obviously, in our government's case, but likely among the terrorists as well. And some of the greatest scores in intelligence and law enforcement are the result of capitalizing on the mistakes of others. Intelligence experts say figuring out the patterns of communication helps in understanding a movement as amorphous and diffuse as al-Qaeda. The CIA's database of suspected terrorists worldwide has tripled in the past four years, to about 190,000, says William Arkin, an independent intelligence analyst who monitors NSA and other military spy organizations. "In terms of link analysis, social analysis and a better understanding of al-Qaeda and the nature of terrorist networks, I don't think it could have been done unless we had employed some of these technologies." It's my opinion that our government agencies, with the most relevant responsibility of keeping citizens alive in an era of increasingly easy obtention of destructive technology, should be doing this form of analysis which requires access to such basic information. The devil is in the details: how do you do it within the law, and how do you prevent government from abusing access to the information via appropriate oversight, limits and protocols? But make no mistake - this is probably the tip of the iceberg when it comes to what governments will need to do to in order to prevent individual bad actors from destroying societies and killing thousands or millions of people, given technological trends and the flattening of destructive hierarchies. While I can't be sure about the specifics of any NSA program, I'm much more certain about that. Posted by Bill at May 18, 2006 10:28 AM | TrackBack (0) Trackback PingsTrackBack URL for this entry: Comments(subscription only, unfortunately) Actually, no. You have the option of watching a few pages of ads instead of subscribing. Not too painful, even though I'm having to use dial-up here at the client site. Posted by: Boyd Thanks, updated. Posted by: Bill from INDC at May 18, 2006 12:59 PM Or run Firefox and a healthy dose of NoScript and Adblock plugins, and voila! No ads of any kind (I don't even see Google syndication ads). Now, back to the discussion at hand. I work for a company who... well, let's just say if you buy a loaf of bread - we know. Not only that, we know if you consistently buy the same bread, when you buy it, and how much you buy at any one time. And we tailor targeted messages to you to keep you loyal to the brand or to try to change your behavior. And we do it all without giving a rat's tush who *you* are as a person. We just care about the behavior patterns. With a hundred or so terabytes of data, we can figure out all kinds of things and help manufacturers and retailers customize their marketing both on-the-fly and long term. Did I mention we don't care about you as a person, only your shopping habits? And that we've been doing it for over twenty years? So when I see people start freaking out over this like it's some sort of 'new' thing, relax. If they've not stormed your door so far, they're probably not going to any time soon. Bill, since I'm not supposed to speak for my company I'm 'anonymizing' my info. I've sent you an email just in case you're wary of anon. posts. Posted by: Anonymous (so I can keep my job) at May 18, 2006 01:15 PM The issue is not so much with the data-mining/traffic analysis as it is with the fact that it is being done domestically without any regard to even the slightest bit of reasonable doubt and in a way that, without certain loopholes, would normally be illegal. I discuss this a little more in depth in my May 17, 2006 09:17 PM comment to this previous post. Posted by: dorkafork at May 18, 2006 02:16 PM the fact that it is being done domestically without any regard to even the slightest bit of reasonable doubt and in a way that, without certain loopholes, would normally be illegal. Ah, but you don't KNOW this, you ASSUME it. And you may be right, and you may be wrong. Though Sen. Roberts seemed to intimate in his opening speech to the hearings today that there was some sort of judicial oversight/review of the program. And given the lack of detail on the program and the fact that the phone companies have now denied giving the NSA any records, it's not clear WHAT is going on. In addition, the definition of pen register in the relevant statutes is muddy regarding purpose vs. letter of the law; namely, was it intended to guard privacy in the event of strictly anonymous data patterns, when no privacy can be technically compromised without identity? I suspect that definitively asserting that either way - without any subjective doubt - is territory for interested legal parties. But I'm getting ahead of myself, as that's another post. How's that incontinence treating you? Posted by: Bill from INDC at May 18, 2006 02:52 PM Well how do you KNOW I don't KNOW it, smart guy? Maybe I'm USAToday's source. Never thought about that, didya? Kidding aside, yes it is possible that the reports could be wrong. I'll try to add more qualifications in future posts, but I think my assumptions are relatively safe. (You were saying something about "the phone companies have now denied" it and "lack of detail"?) In addition, the definition of pen register in the relevant statutes is muddy regarding purpose vs. letter of the law; § 2702 a)3): "a provider of remote computing service or electronic communication service to the public shall not knowingly divulge a record or other information pertaining to a subscriber to or customer of such service (not including the contents of communications covered by paragraph (1) or (2)) to any governmental entity." What is muddy about that? None of the exceptions are plausible for the program described. Posted by: dorkafork at May 18, 2006 03:50 PM Yeah, that's relatively clear in letter, though the first use of the data that I outlined doesn't actually violate an individual's privacy. Therefore, assuming that application, some of the auto-hyperventilating about privacy concerns would be pretty silly, and the letter of the law is potentially not fulfilling its intent. Which is why I commented: ... the definition of pen register in the relevant statutes is muddy regarding purpose vs. letter of the law ... And I still maintain that that might be a line of legal defense for the government. So it's a poorly written statute that didn't understand/anticipate the possibility of data mining to discern patterns of anon behavior that are a threat to national security, as the agencies can't EVER fulfill the exemptions - the NSA can't simply ask for a subpoena of every phone record in the US based on relevant criminal suspicion. Why the Patriot Act EXPANDED this privacy to all IP's as well as phone calls, instead of making a rational distinction for anonymous data mining is beyond me. Of course, the Administration could make overtures to get such an exception written into law, or ... the President could, you know, claim Constitutional executive authority, given that the data usage may remain anoymous and thus not actually violate anyone's privacy, while perhaps going a long way towards predicting WHEN TERRORISTS ARE PLANNING TO KILL OUR CITIZENS ON A GIVEN DAY. I bet a lot of this helps if you close your eyes and visualize September 12, 2001, and how certain we ALL were that we'd be hit again at any point. PS - This is why I don't want to get into the legal details in a comment back-and-forth, as I have not had time in the past 24 hours to read through all of the relevant laws and statutes and author a considered position in a post. Posted by: Bill from INDC at May 18, 2006 04:37 PM you know, this is all a tempest in a teapot. and don't think of traffic analysis as a flat database, please, all sortsa good stuff gets convolved with the entries. but what is the premo useage of traffic analysis? Posted by: playah grrl at May 22, 2006 09:01 PM Posted by: online poker room at September 22, 2006 06:13 PM Posted by: play casino at September 28, 2006 07:31 AM Posted by: play blackjack at September 28, 2006 01:54 PM Posted by: free online gambling at September 28, 2006 05:32 PM Posted by: free casino games at September 29, 2006 02:30 AM reductil . Posted by: reductil reductil at September 29, 2006 05:31 AM Posted by: free online casino games at September 29, 2006 11:47 AM Posted by: roulette online at October 1, 2006 08:17 PM viagra . 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