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« Monday Music | Main | (Way Belated) Incredibly Shallow Aesthetic Lessons From American Idol, 4/5/06 (Results Show) » April 11, 2006
Truth, More Truth and Statistics
Posted by Bill "RU-486 ruled out in one of two recent deaths." Which means that the suspected American mortality rate for use of the drug combo decreased from my previously estimated 1 in 92,000 to 1 in 93,333, given that suspected deaths moved from 5 to 7, down to 6, and the figure for total use moved from 460,000 to 560,000 women over the last 7 months. This 1 in 93,333 mortality rate still ranks the drug safer than anti-depressants, penicillin, and pregnancy itself.* The nature of coverage over such a relatively tiny number of deaths from this drug protocol speaks volumes about how easy and inevitable it is to politicize science and statistics. Attacking the morality of the drug - even assigning an outsized moral weight to deaths potentially caused by side effects, due to disapproval of the scrip's purpose - may be a legitimate subjective attack ... but let's not pretend that RU-486 is a particularly dangerous regimen, based on the information at hand. * Drug Precautions: All statistical assumptions are based on information contained in linked articles; rates of usage in particular are estimates, and not thoroughly vetted, impartial epidemiological information. That said, all sides of the debate have to work from the same publicly stated material and assumptions. Mortality rates are reported/suspected, and thus exclude potential deaths from the drug which remain unreported. That also said, this ratio of reported to unreported deaths and complications holds true within a percentage range for many, many drugs, presenting a constant challenge to accurate assessment of a pharmaceutical's safety profile. Investigation of RU-486 is warranted, particularly to determine whether topical vaginal usage of misoprostol may be responsible for infection as a side effect; but investigation is a far cry from politically-motivated condemnation of a (thus far) statistically safe medical protocol. NOTE: reading posts at INDC Journal may cause dizziness, night sweats, constipation, projectile vomiting and urge to slap Dorkafork vigorously about the face, head, neck and shoulders. Do not read INDC Journal prior to operating heavy machinery or reading the Daily Kos, as either interaction carries a risk of serious injury or death. Be cool, stay in school. Posted by Bill at April 11, 2006 09:19 AM | TrackBack (0) Trackback PingsTrackBack URL for this entry: CommentsTake one, Bill. I'm curious as to how it'd effect you. Posted by: Donnah at April 12, 2006 12:49 AM The first drug is a synthetic steroid that inhibits both progesterone (causing the abortifacient effect) and glucocorticoids (a type of steroid hormone). Not having much progesterone in my body (certainly not relative to a pregnant woman), if I took a little, probably nothing would happen. If I took more, my sex drive and sense of well being would drop, as it's a precursor to other sex hormones, as well as throwing inversely related hormones out of wack. If I took enough, it'd give me symptoms of Addison's Disease (due to the anti-glucocorticoid effect) - fatigue, weight loss, muscle weakness, irritability, numbness, salt cravings, hypoglycemia, low blood pressure. All these problems would go away after I was finished taking the drug. The second drug (Misoprostol) probably wouldn't do much except stimulate the secretion of mucous that covers my intestinal tract, thus insulating it from gastric ulceration (another indication for the drug). Not having a uterus, it wouldn't stimulate any uterine contractions. Might give some side effects at the RU-486 dose, like nausea, vomiting, diarrhea, etc. I'd have little reason to take either, but I certainly wouldn't be afraid to. The first drug is hella safe, as most hormone inhibitors are in acute doses. The second drug is a little more interesting (IMO), but deaths and troubling side effects may simply be related to infection caused by topical application rather than oral dosing. Posted by: Bill from INDC at April 12, 2006 01:06 AM Bill, the dosage of the mifeprisone may be an issue in the off-label regimens associated with deaths from a specific type of infection. I am certainly not going to be accused of pumping up the risk of the procedure to promote an anti-aborton agenda, but I think there is some suggestion that revised regimens may increase the risks of a rare kind of sepsis, particularly dangerous because it may escalate without tell-tale signs, such a fever. One thing about this story has been how inaccurate media reports have been. A Gyno's medblog, The Well-Timed Period, has been covering the issues with some detail, so I'll just quote from her. The off-label regimen used was 1 tablet of RU-486 (Mifeprex), or 200 mg, orally, followed by 4 tablets of misoprostol, or 800 mcg, PV. Posted by: SarahW SarahW - Bill, the dosage of the mifeprisone may be an issue in the off-label regimens associated with deaths from a specific type of infection. I doubt it's the Mifepristone, rather the second drug in the protocol - misoprostol. As you excerpt: The off-label regimen used was 1 tablet of RU-486 (Mifeprex), or 200 mg, orally, followed by 4 tablets of misoprostol, or 800 mcg, PV. I doubt taking LESS Mifeprex is the key factor in sepsis, though I can't claim expertise. It is odd that the off-label was less of the first and vastly more of the second. BUT conceptually - rubbing a substances that causes irritation directly on the mucosal membrane of the vagina vs. simply taking an oral dose of the same drug - a drug that's safely taken for other indications - is vastly more likely to lead to an infection than the dosage combinations, IMO. A simple lack of hygiene while applying it could cause a sneaky infection. Though I grant that the influence of the dosages themselves are not out of the realm of possibility. Posted by: Bill from INDC at April 12, 2006 11:44 AM Bill, there are at least some reasons why an inadequate dose of mifipristone might contribute to sepsis; including the additional culture medium of blood and tissue in the uterus. The organism implicated Clostridium sordellii is found in the genital tracts of healthy women, and deaths from this organism occur after spontaneous abortion, natural delivery and C-sections, and surgical abortion as well. Posted by: SarahW at April 12, 2006 02:34 PM including the additional culture medium of blood and tissue in the uterus. that's a very good point. UPDATED: I have to think about this. What is the mechanism for "additional culture medium of blood and tissue in the uterus?" Insufficient blockage of progesterone which leads to ... "the additional culture medium?" This drug is administered in a single dose, acutely, which might limit this angle a bit. Still, good point, even though I'm probably missing the mechanism. Again, I'm operating out of my depth here, esp in the gyno department. Posted by: Bill from INDC at April 12, 2006 03:12 PM Not having a uterus, it wouldn't stimulate any uterine contractions. What about your mangina? Posted by: dorkafork at April 12, 2006 03:31 PM it's probably like the Titanic, more than one thing has to go wrong. As I said, C. Sordelli is a common vaginal bacteria. Anti-progestins cause changes in the cervix that may allow the organism to more readily colonize the Os/cervical canal. This canal is a low oxygen environment - C. sordelli thrives in anaerobic conditions and derives nutrition from degenerating/decaying tissue (including the fetal tissues and endometrium). As when a (spontaneous) abortion is threatened for a long time before expulsion of the products of conception, or when a (spontaneous) abortion is incomplete, the more time the process takes to expell the bacteria's source of nutrition, the greater the chance of infection. (The process of spontaneous abortion is very similar to the effects of mifepristone with regards to the lack of progesterone supporting the pregnancy.) But wait - there's more..systemic antiglucocorticoid actions are a know hormonal effect of antiprogestins. Some (reputable) guy whose name I forget (I'm not so reputable, but I'll try to find it) has recently proposed that antiglucocorticoid effects may interfere with cytokines, and impair immune response in susceptible individuals. This could have two deadly effects -the body's ability to fight off C. sordellii is impaired, yet the typical warning signs and symtoms of a nasty infection are not present. Or not. But the reason surgical abortion may have one up on a slow medical abortion is that while instrumentation always runs the risk of introducing infection, there less nutrition for the bacteria to thrive on when all the tissue is curetted away, and there would be no suppression of immune response and less chance for the bacteria to cause septic shock....however, this kind of infection CAN follow any surgical abortion and indeed, any pregnancy. Posted by: SarahW at April 12, 2006 05:22 PM Nice summary. And here I thought all you knew how to do was wisecrack and p-shop. In that respect, this puts you at least one item ahead of dorkafork. As when a (spontaneous) abortion is threatened for a long time before expulsion of the products of conception, or when a (spontaneous) abortion is incomplete, the more time the process takes to expell the bacteria's source of nutrition, the greater the chance of infection. Well this is what I was suspecting, though I doubted the angle because the abortion largely either happens or it doesn't over a very short, finite and consistent window of time (a day or so), thus the difference in protein wouldn't be that appreciable, and the misoprostol is what determines whether the protein and bacteria fuel is expelled. But I guess a lot can happen in 24-48 hours, and I'm certainly still out of my depth with such wild guesses. (Point deleted) So yeah ... it's probably like the Titanic, more than one thing has to go wrong. ... very well could be. Though it could also be monofactorial. I don't know. Shrug. 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