INDCJournal: Israel to Stop Nuclear Iran?

December 13, 2005

Israel to Stop Nuclear Iran?

Posted by Bill

Can Israel prevent Iran from going nuclear with military strikes? I used to think so. Are they publicly readying for such strikes?

Israel's armed forces have been ordered by Ariel Sharon, the prime minister, to be ready by the end of March for possible strikes on secret uranium enrichment sites in Iran, military sources have revealed.
The order came after Israeli intelligence warned the government that Iran was operating enrichment facilities, believed to be small and concealed in civilian locations.

Or are they bluffing (long but thorough, interesting read, pdf):

Page 148 Israeli Operational Capabilities vis-�-vis Iran.
Iran is situated more then 1,000 kms from Israel. It is a vast country,and all the meaningful nuclear targets are, and most probably will continue to be, situated far from its Western borders. That means that once Israel decides to attack Iran�s nuclear facilities, it will have to plan a sustainable attack on a number of targets that are situated 1,500-1,700 kms from Israel. For that purpose, Israel can use only its air force. The targets usually are far from the Indian Ocean, and Israel has no significant seaborne air power assets.

Although Israel has some military relationships with friendly states that are situated closer to Iran, most notably, Turkey and India, these states also are keeping a friendly relationship with Iran, and it is highly unlikely that they would let Israel use their territories for the purpose of attacking Iran�s nuclear infrastructure. This means that the Israeli attack aircraft would have to take off from air bases in Israel, ﬂy 1,500-1,700 kms to the targets, destroy them, and then ﬂy back 1,500-1,700 kms. It is also possible that the ﬂight would be even longer for the Israeli planes because they would have to ﬂy through the air space of Jordan and Iraq to use the direct shorter route to Iran. Flying through Jordan without the explicit or implicit permission of the Jordanians would hurt relations with a friendly Arab state. Flying over Iraq without coordination with the United States would lead to a clash with U.S. interceptors. Any attempt at coordination with the United States or asking permission from Jordan might compromise the operation. It is also very doubtful whether Jordan and the United States would be willing to be involved in such Israeli operations. As a result, the Israeli planes would have to use the longer route over the Indian Ocean, with minimal penetration of the air space of other states.
The IAF does not have any bombers. Its air ﬂeet consists only of ﬁghter-bombers with limited range of action. Israel has 25 F-15I and 137 F-16C/D ﬁghter-bombers. It is going to improve its long range capability in 2004 with few operational F-16I aircraft with greater range of action then the F-15I, but the burden of the attacks would be laid mostly on the F-15I aircraft that have better capabilities at longer ranges. F-15I has a radius of action of 1,270 kms. The corresponding one for F-16C/D is 925 kms and for F-16I, 2,100 kms (but Israel will have only few of them at the relevant time).30 The real operational radius is even shorter because for parts of the route, the planes would have to ﬂy at low altitude to avoid radar detection. That shortens the range of ﬂight because of higher fuel consumption at low altitudes. It means that the attack aircraft would need to be refueled at least twice, on their way to the targets and from the targets. That adds complication to the operation because Israel has only a few air refuelers based on Boeing 707 aircraft platforms. Such aircraft are very vulnerable, and therefore air refueling cannot take place in hostile air space.

Assuming that the attack aircraft succeeded in entering the Iranian air space, they would have to avoid early detection and be capable of dealing with Iranian interceptors. Iran is a vast country, and the radar assets available to the Iranian air defense system are limited. If the Israeli planners had good information about their location, it would be possible to plan approach routes to the targets that would avoid early detection. If the attacking aircraft were detected and intercepted, the Israeli F-15s and F-16s enjoy vast superiority over the Iranian interceptors and would probably defend themselves successfully. The problem is that such long range attacks are very sensitive to interferences, and therefore the intercepted attack formation might have to abort its mission.

If the Israeli attack aircraft succeed in avoiding early detection and interception, it can be safely assumed that they would be capable of avoiding the surface to air missile defenses and the antiaircraft artillery (AAA) defenses deployed closer to the targets and destroy the targets by use of a combination of tactics, ECM, and smart munitions.

In any case, any Israeli attack on an Iranian nuclear target would be a very complex operation in which a relatively large number of attack aircraft and support aircraft (interceptors, ECM aircraft, refuelers, and rescue aircraft) would participate. The conclusion is that Israel could attack only a few Iranian targets and not as part of a sustainable operation over time, but as a one time surprise operation.

Even if Israel had the attack capabilities needed for the destruction of the all elements of the Iranian nuclear program, it is doubtful whether Israel has the kind of intelligence needed to be certain that all the necessary elements of the program were traced and destroyed fully. Israel has good photographic coverage of Iran with the Ofeq series of reconnaissance satellites, but being so distant from Iran, one can assume that other kinds of intelligence coverage are rather partial and weak.

Covert action demands different kinds of operational capabilities and intelligence. There is no indication that Israel has capabilities of covert operations in Iran. The recent information about the development of the Iranian program indicated that it reached a status of being independent of external assistance. Moreover, the assistance Iran got was mostly from Pakistan, another place which is not a traditional area of operations for the Israeli secret services, like Europe or South America. It seems that there is no real potential for covert Israeli operations against the Iranian Nuclear program.

I wouldn't rule it out as a possibility - after all, public analysis of military doctrine and capability doesn't automatically account for secret intelligence and backroom deals between countries - but Israel's successful aggressive action to remove Iran's nuclear capability certainly isn't the certainty that we might hope for.

The United States may be the only power militarily capable of such action, and the United States currently does not hold the political capital necessary to execute. US Army War College assessment and more from Goldstein.

Posted by Bill at December 13, 2005 09:55 AM | TrackBack (2)

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