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December 01, 2005
Fallacy of the Consequent, Fallacy of False Cause

Posted by Bill

... describe the "moderate" reasoning utilized in this graph regarding the use of White Phosphorous in Fallujah:

Perhaps the Pentagon -- perhaps America's civilian leadership -- needs to do a better job explaining why it does what it does. If it was absolutely necessary to use WP on the battlefield in Fallujah, then make that case. If it wasn't, then there'd better be a good reason why it was used.

This form of debate - so popular in the trenches of political argumentation - relies on assigning direct causality between the decisions of high level entities and events that take place in a very low level tactical setting. Specifically applied in this case, this illogic assumes that the current iteration of "America's civilian leadership" has a direct influence on and/or subsequent public relations responsibility to atone for a junior officer's decision to utilize legal, approved Willy Pete artillery rounds that have been commonly employed in America's arsenal for 60+ years prior to the battle of Fallujah - a setting concertedly cleared of its civilian population - because:

A. White Phosphorous rounds have a chemical action with the potential to cause really super nasty, icky-sounding wounds.

B. The use of this legal round that has a chemical action with the potential to cause really nasty, icky-sounding wounds can be subsequently exaggerated and spun by partisan ideologues as use of a "chemical weapon," with the intent of drawing an ironic moral equivalence between the United States and Saddam Hussein's regime.

Legitimately "moderate" reasoning can certainly gravitate towards some form of intellectual compromise - ie, "because the use of these rounds can be wittingly used by leftist ideologues and select dupes as anti-war PR against the United States, perhaps the Pentagon should make a practical effort to explain the legality and purpose of the munition." Or from a more condemnatory standpoint, an individual could attempt a complete contextual examination of the use of White Phosphorous and its ethical viability in the US Arsenal, thus challenging its future status as a standard round and potential employment as an anti-personnel weapon. But ...

... assigning some sort of retroactive moral culpability to the Pentagon for a junior officer's use of an antiquated, perfectly legal munition on a battlefield aggressively cleared of non-combatants, or worse, explicitly casting moral aspersions on the actual junior officer(s) for using said legal munition (a tactic mostly avoided because it's counterintuitive to larger ideological goals), constitutes naive or willfully selective parsing that employs an intellectually shallow (or malicious) assignation of false causality, subsequent responsibility and/or ethical failing.

But to be absolutely fair to individuals freshly attempting to grapple with the oft-uncomfortable nature and use of military weapons: the concept of an incendiary burning human flesh is indeed pretty repellant. But then again, another fairly nasty way to die occurs when a piece of molten metal punches into a small, enclosed space where humans are present, then explodes into shards of hot shrapnel that rend them limb-from-limb. Also pretty stomach-turning? A frightening weapon that "create(s) a huge pressure wave which effectively sucks the air out of the lungs of anyone unfortunate enough to be within range."

And perhaps scariest of all is the military's use of kinetic energy weaponry, which punches small holes in the target's flesh and then mushrooms, loosing a wrecking shock wave that obliterates tissue; killing and maiming by disrupting vital organs, causing critical blood loss, interrupting the function of the central nervous system and carrying radial biological effects, including poisoning the blood with bacteria and inciting septic shock.

But of course, few levy specific moral arguments against "America's civilian leadership" for a Marine's use of bullets.

Posted by Bill at December 1, 2005 11:04 AM | TrackBack (6)

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Comments

Was going to comment, but your analysis leaves nothing to add to it. Well done.

Indeed. Heh.

Posted by: JD at December 1, 2005 11:47 AM

And perhaps scariest of all is the military's use of kinetic energy weaponry, which punches small holes in the target's flesh and then mushrooms, loosing a wrecking swath of energy that obliterates tissue; killing and maiming by disrupting vital organs, causing critical blood loss, interrupting the function of the central nervous system and carrying radial biological effects, including poisoning the blood with bacteria and inciting septic shock.
I think I saw this in slow motion on CSI.....

Posted by: Robb Allen (Sharp as a Marble) at December 1, 2005 12:55 PM

Whatever happened to "The Buck Stops Here" Repugs never take any responsibility unless they are indicted.

And it is targetting civilians that civilized people object to.

Posted by: madmatt at December 1, 2005 01:28 PM

Guess what. Our military DOESN'T TARGET CIVILIANS. Because our military is made up of civilized people. As opposed to the "freedom fighters" who kidnap civilians and subsequently saw their heads of. Madmatt, you are the prototypical leftist troll.

Posted by: Duncan Avatar at December 1, 2005 01:31 PM

Very, very well said. Sometimes I wonder if those who are against this (and most every) war have any concept of what war is about.

Sherman had it right, "War is hell." But it is a necessary evil of human civilizaiton...

Posted by: Michael Pusatera at December 1, 2005 02:05 PM

The joke's on us, tho, because WP is just the latest in the Angry Left's Jackson Pollock approach to dissent: they just splatter a lot of wild charges around & hope something sticks. If it doesn't, they shrug & pull out another bucket

Posted by: beautifulatrocities at December 1, 2005 02:19 PM

It is the scandal of the day. Before that it was "carpet bombing" (which never happened), then it was depleted uranium rounds, now white phosphorus. And I bet I missed a whole slew of evil American weaponry.

They desperately want anything they can pin on the US. It won't be valid criticism, it won't be rational. They have their verdict already, and the sentence has been pronounced. Now they just have to find a charge, and they have been looking for that for years.

And they wonder why few take them seriously.

Posted by: Mikey at December 1, 2005 02:34 PM

Actually, Mikey, they have a lot of poodles in the MSM who repeat their charges without question

Posted by: beautifulatrocities at December 1, 2005 02:35 PM

I totally agree with you, B.A., they just are desperately seeking a charge that will, you know, stick with the general populace and not get laughed out of the room.

Posted by: Mikey at December 1, 2005 03:10 PM

The form of weaponry used is only relevent in a legal argument. I'm not an expert on the rules of warfare, so I can't really offer an opinion on that aspect.

The question, in my mind, is who did we kill and why? Was it worth it? Did we kill civillians in Fallujah? Of course we did. There is photographic evidence. Was the cost in civilian casulties (the number we have no way of knowing) along with the lives of 38 of our own troops worth what we gained from Operation Phantom Fury? The two main (public) objectives were catching al-Zarqawi and making a critical blow to the insurgency. Since al-Zarqawi is still at large and the insurgency is still stronger then ever I would have to say it was not.

Posted by: John Gillnitz at December 1, 2005 03:24 PM

Sure, but different arguments.

But who says the insurgency is stronger than ever? Stronger than when they had unfettered control of Fallujah? Especially when certain quarters of Fallujah were begging for help removing the fundamentalist/criminal element that had nested within their city?

And with that I'll offer a third metric, the long-term impact on Fallujah itself, which from recent accounts has been almost a model of Iraqi reconstruction. Leaving the city as a free operating base for the insurgency was not really an option.

But again, different set of debatable arguments.

Posted by: Bill from INDC at December 1, 2005 03:32 PM

That blog's name should be changed to 'the moderately liberal voice'. Often using reasoning, but not always. Government owes an explanation for use of wp.... geez.

You should have heard him a few months ago blaming Bush for all of the uncommitted atrocities in New Orleans. It was disgusting.

Posted by: Kevin at December 1, 2005 03:57 PM

I used to be a regular reader of The Moderate Voice, but it really has gone to hell the last few months.

I still check it out every couple days, but it is definitely moving down the rotation.

Kind of a shame.

But it’s a big blogosphere.

Posted by: jmaster at December 1, 2005 04:35 PM

But who says the insurgency is stronger than ever?
Posted by: Bill from INDC at December 1, 2005 03:32 PM

The Pentagon in its October, 2005 report to Congress entitled "Measuring Stability and
Security in Iraq."
http://www.pentagon.mil/pubs/20051013_publication_OSSRF.pdf
Attack trends are on page 22

A summery:

"A year after the invasion, according to official U.S. figures, the average number of insurgent attacks on Coalition and Iraqi forces was less than 200 per week. The number of attacks in October 2005, however, is now at its highest level ever: more than 550 attacks per week. The average number of civilian casualties per day is also at the highest recorded figure: more than 60 per day."

I'm sure there have been some positive outcomes, but not enough to outweigh the bad.

Posted by: John Gillnitz at December 1, 2005 05:01 PM

By this type of reasoning, cordite, the basic "chemical" compound used in those ordinary 500 lb and 2000 lb iron bombs is also a "chemical weapon."

As for the WP, let's see the photos and the signed depositions. As the only difference between a civilian and an insurgent is that the latter may have a weapon, we need good proof that civilians were in fact targeted. The treaties often cited as the underpinnings of the "chemical weapons" charge require that civilians be targeted.

Given that Fallujah was a free fire zone, where any and all remaining civilians had taken the responsibility of staying out of harm's way upon themselves, it is incumbent upon those citing possible improper use of weapons of any kind (not restricted to WP) against civilians to show that the military should have had the expectation that the targets they were firing upon did, in fact, contain civilians.

Posted by: Neo at December 1, 2005 05:24 PM

JG -

Kudos on the cite. Also of note:

"The U.S. military said Thursday that suicide bombings fell in November to their lowest level in seven months after joint U.S.-Iraqi operations west of the capital."

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/10276071/

I'm not sure if your bad outweigh the good comment is about the overall invasion or the fight against the insurgents specifically, but once again, that's a distraction from (and much larger,(and thoroughly debatable) argument than) the purpose of this post.

Posted by: Bill from INDC at December 1, 2005 05:28 PM

The number of attacks in October 2005, however, is now at its highest level ever: more than 550 attacks per week.

This is a red herring and you know it if you took the time to actually read that report, John. The number of attacks increased to that point for October because of the constitutional referendum that month. The insurgents can't sustain anywhere near that level of activity for any kind of time. That month was an abberation in the trends because the insurgents were doing everything in their power to try to stop progress on the constitution.

The number of attacks in a single month is not an indicator of their strength. If anything stepping up attacks to that rate and utterly failing to impede the constitutional progress in is an indication of desperation and impotence.

Posted by: SeanH at December 1, 2005 06:10 PM

How do you tell the difference between dead terrorists and a dead civilians in photographs?

Seriously, because I'm fucked if I can.

Posted by: B Moe at December 1, 2005 06:18 PM

"And it is targetting civilians that civilized people object to.

Posted by madmatt at December 1, 2005 01:28 PM"

They didn't during World War II.

Posted by: N. O'Brain at December 1, 2005 06:33 PM

John,
Nice job of misrepresentation.

If the insurgency is stronger than ever, why is it that when the insurgency pays someone off to make an attack on US troops, the price is now nearly ten times higher than it was a year ago?

Posted by: Robin Roberts at December 1, 2005 06:36 PM

The insurgency just keeps getting stronger and stronger. Soon they'll be invincible. Fortunately, the majority of the territory they hold is located in leftists' heads, where they can do little but threaten our Prozac supply.

Posted by: TallDave at December 1, 2005 09:35 PM

"targetting civilians that civilized people object to."

And yet, strangely, "civilized people" on the left don't seem to to offer more than pro forma objections when the PLO suicide bombs a pizza joint or disco in Israel. Or when they killed an American Jew in a wheelchair and pushed his body overboard. Or when an Iraqi terrorist waits to detonate his VBIED (car bomb) until a bunch of kids have gathered around our troops who are handing out candy, so as to achieve maximum horror/terror per pound of TNT.

As for using WP: WP is nothing more than a relatively advanced form of Fire. Fire has been used in war, well, since there has been war. Sun Tzu wrote about how best to employ Fire in the Art of War. It's not new, even in the form of WP-WP was one of the favored ways used by Allied air forces to destroy enemy planes on the ground in the Pacific theater in WWII.

What matters is the targeting? Do US troops deliberately shoot-with WP or anything else-at people they know to be civilians? No. Do civilians get killed by directed fire by troops who think the civilians are terrorists? Yes. If the terrorists would obey the Law of Land Warfare and wear uniforms, we wouldn't have this problem. Do civlians get killed by our weapons despite our best efforts to avoid killing them? Yes. But this has always happened in war, and, until we make war an arena sport, it always will.

Posted by: Heartless Libertarian at December 2, 2005 02:44 AM

Don't lefties usually claim the 2nd ammendment only applies to the military? Now they want to infringe my personal right to bear arms and the milita's right to bear arms.

Posted by: anonymn at December 2, 2005 08:44 AM

"What matters is the targeting? Do US troops deliberately shoot-with WP or anything else-at people they know to be civilians? No. Do civilians get killed by directed fire by troops who think the civilians are terrorists? Yes. If the terrorists would obey the Law of Land Warfare and wear uniforms, we wouldn't have this problem. Do civlians get killed by our weapons despite our best efforts to avoid killing them? Yes. But this has always happened in war, and, until we make war an arena sport, it always will."

So... eveything depends upon whether the shooter does so "deliberately... at people they know to be civilians"? The morality of such weaponry is really a function of the state of mind of the shooter?

Furthermore... it is the fault of terrorists, not troops, that civilians get killed because the terrorists refuse to wear uniforms?

RIDICULOUS!!!

Posted by: AndyS at December 2, 2005 11:00 AM

The number of attacks increased to that point for October because of the constitutional referendum that month. The insurgents can't sustain anywhere near that level of activity for any kind of time. That month was an abberation in the trends because the insurgents were doing everything in their power to try to stop progress on the constitution.
Posted by: SeanH at December 1, 2005 06:10 PM

Who told you that? Rush Limbaugh? Did you look at the report? It has been over 400/week since April, 2004 with spikes over 500/week from June 29, 2004 to Feb. 11, 2005. Not only can they sustain this level, but they can increase it should doing so be in their best interest.

The insurgents don't give a damn about the election or the constitution. To them it is bullshit which is why they are fighting in the first place. One of these days an Iraqi election might mean something. For now the signs of democracy in Iraq are cosmetic talking points.

Posted by: John Gillnitz at December 2, 2005 11:39 AM

For now the signs of democracy in Iraq are cosmetic talking points.

Now you've wildly overstated your case, given the overwhelming participation in the past few referendums and the political wrangling and coalition building that's taken place in a country with no memory of representative Democracy.

And if you think that the insurgents don't care about making violent PR successes at significant landmarks during the institution of the Democratic process, well, you simply haven't been paying attention to Zarquawi's missives.

Posted by: Bill from INDC at December 2, 2005 11:44 AM

How do you tell the difference between dead terrorists and a dead civilians in photographs?
Posted by: B Moe at December 1, 2005 06:18 PM

There are pictures where some of the dead are literally holding white flags. Infants and small children I would count as civilians. Also the elderly and disabled.

Posted by: John Gillnitz at December 2, 2005 11:49 AM

Now you've wildly overstated your case, given the overwhelming participation in the past few referendums and the political wrangling and coalition building that's taken place in a country with no memory of representative Democracy.
Posted by: Bill from INDC at December 2, 2005 11:44 AM

The high level of participation (if true) amongst the vast majority of Iraq's population is a good sign. However, those aren't the people who are attacking us. The minority who is has more interest in attacking those who give the elections legitimacy instead of the election process itself. They are not going to trade their IEDs for campaign buttons anytime soon.

Mostly the elections are for American consumption. Iraqis are more concerned with the simmering civil war between the Sunni Bathists (or Saddamist or what ever the hell Bush is calling them this week) and al-Sader's Shiite death squads.

Posted by: John Gillnitz at December 2, 2005 12:15 PM

" They are not going to trade their IEDs for campaign buttons anytime soon."

Again, you are switching up arguments at random to suit your ends. My mention of participation was in respond to "For now the signs of democracy in Iraq are cosmetic talking points," not the fact that insurgents won't want campaign buttons.

"Mostly the elections are for American consumption."

That's an arrogant statement, given first-hand Iraqi accounts (start reading Iraqi blogs, will you?) of how many Iraqis themselves feel about the elections, and given the enthusiastic politicking of the Kurds and Shia. The truth is, there are plenty of anecdotes and data points to support a variety of arguments about Iraq, but the real picture is far to complex and diverse for unequivocal statements. I say this not as spin, but honest assessment.

But you've come to your conclusion already, so I'm not sure that there's much more point hashing this out.

Especially since - as I'm pointing out for the third time now - you've essentially diverted the topic of this thread from what the post was about (the ethics of Willy Pete use in Fallujah and the Pentagon's responsibility), to flogging the entire effort to Democratize Iraq.

Posted by: Bill from INDC at December 2, 2005 12:24 PM

Yes Andy,

It is the fault of ther terrorists to a great extent that civilians are killed by terrorists or to a lesser extent by the US forces. The historic Laws of Land Warfare in general and the Geneva Conventions in specific (of which Incendiary Weapons -- Protocol III is a part), exist to a large part to mitigate harm to civilians by requiring "Lawful combats" and other parties subject to the Conventions to comply.

"combatants, who are defined as
- members of the armed forces of a party to an international conflict,
- members of militias or volunteer corps including members of organized resistance movements as long as they have a well-defined chain of command,
- are clearly distinguishable from the civilian population,
- carry their arms openly,
- and obey the laws of war.

The Terrorists do none of these things. They hide in the civilian population, thus causing harm to the civilians.

Posted by: The Drill SGT at December 2, 2005 03:03 PM

"Infants and small children I would count as civilians. Also the elderly and disabled."

As would most of us. Unfortunately your buddies in the insurgency consider them weapons.

Posted by: B Moe at December 2, 2005 03:07 PM

I guess we will have to agree to disagree, Bill. Thanks for being a fair moderator.

Posted by: John Gillnitz at December 2, 2005 03:14 PM

OK John

Let's talk about self-interest. It's in the self interest of terrorists to both target civilians (to spread terror) and to encourage US forces to target civilians, thus increasing the hate of civilians for US forces. It is in the interest of US forces to target terrorists, thus winning the war and to NOT target and AVOID harm to civilians. Those interests ought to be non-refutable. Given that, who ought to bear the most blame when a civilian is hurt?

Posted by: The Drill SGT at December 2, 2005 07:08 PM

Who told you that? Rush Limbaugh? Did you look at the report? It has been over 400/week since April, 2004 with spikes over 500/week from June 29, 2004 to Feb. 11, 2005. Not only can they sustain this level, but they can increase it should doing so be in their best interest.

Please. I don't have to be some right-wing ditto head to point out that you're intentionally misreading a chart. Insurgent attacks decreased steadily from mid 500s/week in the last half of 2004 to mid 400s/week at the end of this August. They spiked back up into the mid 500s/week for September/October because of the referendum. That's an increase of about 400 attacks for that single month. They cannot sustain that level of activity no matter how much you may want them to, John. If they could they'd have done so for the past year, but they have not.

The number of attacks had been decreasing for a year and a half and spiked back up because of the referendum. You've taken a very poor interpretation of a single chart from that report and tried to claim that the Pentagon says the insurgency is getting stronger. Nothing in that report says they are getting stronger and anyone reading the text on page 18 of that report would get the opposite impression. One of us is full of crap, John, and if it's me it should be easy for you to demonstrate. Support your bogus claim and provide actual statements from the Pentagon saying the insurgency is stronger today than it was a year ago.

The insurgents don't give a damn about the election or the constitution.

This is probably the single most foolish statement on Iraq I've ever seen and it makes it pretty clear that you have no idea what's going on there. The very first two sentences (pg 18) on the insurgency in the report you cited say that the objective of the insurgents is to derail the political process in Iraq and they are failing to do so. The statements of the insurgents themselves also show it's silly.

I'm sorry to ramble on off topic like this, Bill, but good God.

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Madonna says she may adopt another child from abroad following her proposed adoption of a Malawian boy...

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Classical singer Russell Watson postpones his forthcoming UK tour after undergoing brain surgery...

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