Too bold. The war in *Iraq* may be all but over (however, with terroist bombings continuing the MSM will never admit that), but the larger War on Terror is far from over. These words will come back to haunt us war supporters. I wish the author has phrased this better.

Reminds me of "Mission Accomplished."

I would argue Zinsmeister actually understates the case. We won the war in April 2003; everything since has been mop-up/police work. It's just that the war was so easy, and there's been so much mopping up while we build an Iraqi governement from scratch, that it seems as though we're still at war even though there really is no militarily significant opposition.

Now, had we bolted in 2004, we could have "lost" in the sense that new wannabe tyrants had a fair chance of overthrowing the interim gov't. But now even that seems extremely unlikely, if not impossible, given their very limited support from the populace. The Iraqi forces aren't great at this point, but if we left today they would probably hang on and win (though it might not be pretty).

It's too easy to forget that

1) There are no standing armies opposing us
2) The population is on the side of Iraqi democracy
3) Elections have been held, granting legitimacy to the gov't
4) Iraqis are flocking to the democratic gov't forces in far greater numbers than to the insurgency
5) Unlike Aghanistan, the Iraqi gov't has billions in oil revenue to bolster its position
6) A constitution enshrining basic freedoms and rights is 80% complete
7) Iraq's economy grew at 50% last year, and growth for this year is estimated at 35%. This is very important, because as Fareed Zakaria noted in his book The Future of Freedom, there is a very strong correlation between GDP per capita and successful democracy; once democracies become rich, they become immortal. Between $6,000 and $9,000 (iirc) 2/3 of democratic states survive indefinitely. No democracy with a GDP per capita per capita over $9,000 has ever failed. Currently, Iraq is at about $3,500 GDP per capita right now, so in a few years they will probably reach the economic tipping point, esp if oil prices stay high and modern development of Iraqi oil fields happens as scheduled.

All that said, the violence will certainly continue for a year or two, and may continue for decades. But that shouldn’t be viewed as the final judgment on the war. Israel still sees violence 45 years after its inception, but they’ve managed to build a thriving society anyway.

Is it fair to say that the Allies won the European front of WWII on D-Day, even though V-E day was much later? And was that apparent back then? Honest questions to those who know their history well.

Good point, though in Iraq's case all the set-piece battles were over in April 2003. It's almost more comparable to 2 years after V-E day -- except we're actually further along in Iraq.

Of course, if you take Sun-Tzu's view of war, the war was over when Pearl Harbor was bombed.

A lot of people have thought FDR was hoping for a Pearl Harbor to rally support, and perhaps even allowed it to happen. That last smacks of tinfoil and black helicopters, but positing an alternate history where America never enters WW II(imagine either Hitler taking Moscow, or the Red Army rolling all the through France and a Cold War where Japan and Western Europe are Comunist) it's hard to argue he wouldn't have been right to do so anyway.

Yeah, I arrived at the same conclusion within the last week.

As many have pointed out, this is probably a strategically unsustainable situation for the jihadists, but not yet a mark of early, sure victory.

Why do you hate America and want us to lose, you defeatist traitor you?

The war is effectively over. By the time the Allies crossed the Rhine, Germany had lost, albeit not surrendered yet. The Baathists have lost, but just not surrended. The Guerillas can not defeat the an army in the field. They have no base of support, and they alienating the Iraqi population.

No amount of car bombing will persaude the Iraqi populace to restore the Baathists to power, and car bombing is all the guerillas are able to do.

      As has been said, it depends on what you mean by 'we've won,' and 'the war is over.'

      After the battle of Kursk, the WWII in Europe was effectively won.  The Pacific portion was effectively won after we took Guam and Tinian.

      But WWII wasn't over.

      And we had effectively won the Viet Nam War by 1970.  The Party of Treason, aka the Democrats, later managed to hand it back to the other side.

      With the Iraqi elections, and the victories in Fallujah, etc., plus the building of an Iraqi Army that will fight, we have effectively won the war.  But it isn't over.  If we don't flinch, it will be over in a couple of years, with the U.S. victorious.

THE SAUDS MUST BE DESTROYED!

Is your "saudis" line a joke?

He said "Sauds" not "Saudis," meaning the royal family, not the people or country. Not funny in my view -- I'm inclined to agree.

Little overwrought presentation, ain't it?

Yeah.

I'd be interested in a more measured post by you sometime on this topic. There's a lot to think about. The case can be made that the Sauds, while less overtly criminal than Saddam, have always been a more serious threat to stability, and a greater cause of terrorism. We have been complicit in policies that have kept these despots in power, while the Sauds have sold their souls to the devil (Islamic fundamentalism) in order to maintain their unbelievably opulent lifestyle. It's hard to think about the incredibly corrupt situation in Saudi Arabia without spotting a glimmer of truth in what Osama says.

Bill:

      No, my statement that the Saud family must be destroyed is quite serious.  I'm sure you remember who founded al-Qaeda, where most of the 9/11 hijackers came from, which country is contributing the largest number of terrorists to murder Iraqis, etc.

      The Saud family is divided into those who don't care about that, as long as their opportunity to steal isn't disturbed, and those who actively support the terrorists.  The Saud family needs to be made mostly dead, with the survivors in abject poverty.

      Once the Sauds are dead, the war on terror will really be over.

THE SAUDS MUST BE DESTROYED!