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November 10, 2004
Roach Motel

Posted by Bill

Were the months of inaction preceding this week's climactic street battle in Fallujah a conscious part of a larger strategy designed to quell the country's insurgency? A Blackhawk operator serving in Iraq thinks so:

What if the Coalition planners decided to let them set up a "safe" operations center that would, over time, develop such an appeal to all enemies of the coalition, that local insurgents and foreign extremists alike would come running from all parts of Iraq to "consolidate and organize?" Sort of like grabbing a megaphone and shouting "Attention all ye Ba'athists and Islamofascists!!! Safe area in Fallujah!!! Bring your friends!!! Anyone interested in killing children and/or driving car bombs welcome!!!!"

Now, instead of having them spread throughout the country, we have the bulk of them holed up in one "popular" spot. Like a roach motel. Insurgents check in, but they don't check out.

I just hope that all of the big roaches didn't escape before coalition forces sealed up the city.

Posted by Bill at November 10, 2004 12:37 PM | TrackBack (0)

Comments

Your Blackhawk operator may be right. While it's clear that there was political pressure from the IGC and Bremer to hold back in April, it doesn't mean that this pressure wasn't strategically useful. After all, if your plan is to let the bad guys hole up in a place where you can watch them and kill them later, it doesn't help you to announce that this is your intent.

In any event, such a strategy has long been discussed (even referred to informally as "roach motel") as a response to asymmetric, insurgent warfare; i.e., they work to deny us an area and we allow them to consolidate in it, thus creating what is happily known as a "target rich environment". There is a short term cost in terms of allowing the enemy some operational viability, but when the hammer falls it falls hard. Note that our good friends the French used the same strategy in Algiers, and the Israelis have also used it to great effect.

If you read the reports more closely, you'll also see how network-centric warfare and our technological advantages have maximized our effectiveness against a foe that is normally less vulnerable to them (this is the definition of "asymmetric warfare"). In short, our soldiers deserve credit for the job their doing on the ground, our planners deserve credit for providing them with the tools, and our leaders deserve credit for providing them with the opportunities.

Semper Fi, baby. Hoo-ah. And may God have mercy on our enemies.

Posted by: Publius [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 10, 2004 01:32 PM

As far as "roaches" getting away Zarqawi has reportedly already escaped. Don't you think it was rather unwise to have such a large press-build up before this operation? Seems like the terrorists have access to network news as well. Telling them that we're coming for them only gives them more time to escape.

Posted by: Rob [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 10, 2004 01:59 PM

Truth be told, the big fish are only useful if they have enough useful followers. Even if our Jordanian friend has escaped, his network will be a shadow of what it once was. It will take him time, money and effort to re-consolidate. This gives us the time to hold Iraqi elections in a safer environment.

Posted by: Final Historian [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 10, 2004 02:21 PM

I don't believe there was a grand plan for Fallujah to act as a magnet to attract insurgents.

We must seperate the blitzkrieg assault that was considered "major combat operations" from house to house urban warfare. Coalition forces weren't prepared for the intense urban warfare that would be required in area's like Fallujah. Najaf was a primer for later events and helped war planners in the US develop better strategies for urban assaults.

American troop knowledge has increased many fold since the first Fallujah encounter, our men have become battle hardened from months of urban patrols and skirmishes.

Rob: Don't you think it was rather unwise to have such a large press-build up before this operation?

Coalition forces had to announce the coming battle to allow civilians time to flee the battle area.

Posted by: 13times [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 10, 2004 02:30 PM

I think there may be some validity to the idea, but I also don't quite swallow it, since apparantly the biggest and baddest roaches got out before we showed up.

Although I think the US is going for the psychological victory as much as getting the top bad guys in this one-defeating Fallujah, and cleaning out the insurgents/terrorists will send a message that there aren't going to be anymore safe havens. I have heard repeatedly from the pundits that Fullujah is just the first stop in the defeat of the terrorist strongholds, so Zarqawi is going to get caught sooner or later.

Posted by: Just Me [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 10, 2004 04:04 PM

Thanks Bill-

Sheesh I'm tired of the media reporting things like, "The Marines' foward progress has ground to a dead halt in what the troops have nicknamed The Mother Of All Sandstorms" and then just leaving that out there, confident the public will translate it into, "hopeless, bloody quagmire."

I was in that sandstorm. Yes it was a bad one. It's true that I was not able to do much. My Humvee just sat there on the side of the road all night. What I learned later was that while OUR column couldn't move, foward scouts reported back the positions of similarly pinned enemy to artillary units parked across the road from me. Trust me, they were gettin' shit done all night... I 've got the (slight) hearing loss to prove it.

Our expertly trained, highly advanced military is in the bussiness turning lemons into lemonade. And they do it very well.

I'd caution people not to dismiss this pilot's assesment of the situation in Fallujah. It's very plausible.

Posted by: Kieth [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 10, 2004 04:48 PM

Whether it's a roach motel or not, our guys are kicking ass.

Posted by: deltanine [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 10, 2004 08:04 PM

Blatella Iraqihominidensis. The Roach Motel analogy is near perfect. Alpha cohorts tend to successfully survive high pressure broad spectrum control strategems. We can expect there are layers of secondary and tertiary control strategies in place, working on behalf of our military. Zarkawi will unlikely ever be taken in a head-on challenge. But using indirect tertiary controls against the displaced Alphas under stress is particularly effective in cockroach control. Strategically collapsing primary habitat is the best way to decimate large infestations. That's happening in Falluja now. They are not just smashing Falluja, they are collapsing it and driving the Alpha flight toward secondary and tertiary controls lying in wait. There are layers to this operation. Creating opportunities for spontaneous adaptive error is the best way to take fleeing Alphas out of the game.

Will Mr. Z meet Mr. Sticky? Maybe so. More likely than not, given the inertia of displacement and directed force. They'll keep marginalizing and picking-off the Alphas one at a time. Mr. Sticky will do his thing when the time comes. That's why they call him Mr. Sticky.

Posted by: willem [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 10, 2004 08:08 PM

Here's a development I've noticed in the People's Republic of SF: the same moonbats who've been warning (&, frankly, salivating) that American troops were going to get massacred, are now pouting about the big bad Americans picking on poor Third World terrorists who don't stand a chance.

MAKE UP YOUR MIND!

Posted by: jeff [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 10, 2004 11:36 PM

Hello- great site. Thanks for taking the time to check out my military musings. You all bring up some great points- some of which I will address in my next post.

Also, thanks a ton for all your great support- great Americans like you make this whole operation well worth it...

Posted by: 2Slick [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 11, 2004 06:08 AM