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October 31, 2004
Where's the Rest of the Tape? Osama on the Ropes? (UPDATED)

Posted by Bill

Apparently the director's cut of the Bin Laden tape is even more interesting than the excerpt shown on Al Jazeera:

Osama bin Laden doesn't seem nearly so cocky in the unedited version of a videotape aired on al-Jazeera, complaining that the manhunt against him has hampered al Qaeda. Osama bin Laden's newest tape may have thrust him to the forefront of the presidential election, but what was not seen was the cave-dwelling terror lord talking about the setbacks al Qaeda has faced in recent months.

Officials said that in the 18-minute long tape — of which only six minutes were aired on the al-Jazeera Arab television network in the Middle East on Friday — bin Laden bemoans the recent democratic elections in Afghanistan and the lack of violence involved with it.

On the tape, bin Laden also says his terror organization has been hurt by the U.S. military's unrelenting manhunt for him and his cohorts on the Afghan-Pakistani border.

A portion of the left-out footage includes a tirade aimed at President Bush and his father, former President George H.W. Bush, claiming the war in Iraq is purely over oil.

I can certainly understand why the collaborators at Al Jazeera would cut the tape, but I can't fathom why Bin Laden would distribute a display of weakness in the first place. I hope that a domestic news organization will obtain and release the full video and/or transcript for our perusal.

UPDATE: The Belmont Club interprets the edited version:

It is important to notice what he has stopped saying in this speech. He has stopped talking about the restoration of the Global Caliphate. There is no more mention of the return of Andalusia. There is no more anticipation that Islam will sweep the world. He is no longer boasting that Americans run at the slightest wounds; that they are more cowardly than the Russians. He is not talking about future operations to swathe the world in fire but dwelling on past glories. He is basically saying if you leave us alone we will leave you alone. Though it is couched in his customary orbicular phraseology he is basically asking for time out.

This analysis was proffered prior to knowledge of the extended transcript. And note Wretchard's conclusion:

The American answer to Osama's proposal will be given on Election Day. ... Osama has stated his terms. He awaits America's answer.

(Via CQ)

UPDATE: See also Wizbang, Truth Laid Bear, Volokh Conspiracy.

UPDATE: Was the tape mistranslated? MEMRI thinks so:

The tape of Osama bin Laden that was aired on al-Jazeera on Friday, October 29 included a specific threat to "each U.S. state," designed to influence the outcome of the upcoming election against George W. Bush. The U.S. media in general mistranslated the words "ay wilaya" (which means "each U.S. state") to mean a "country" or "nation" other than the U.S., while in fact the threat was directed specifically at each individual U.S. state. This suggests some knowledge by bin Laden of the U.S. electoral-college system. In a section of his speech in which he harshly criticized George W. Bush, bin Laden stated: "Any U.S. state that does not toy with our security automatically guarantees its own security."

Interesting.

(Via sja)

Posted by Bill at October 31, 2004 06:30 PM | TrackBack (11)

Comments

So, in addition to parroting Michael Moore's key talking points, he was also complaining about how hard it now is for Al-Qaeda to even function?

Does some lamebrain want to explain to me again why Bin Laden would ever want to see Bush get re-elected?

Posted by: Watcher at October 31, 2004 06:40 PM

Unfortunately for OBL and his cohorts, their fates were sealed on 9/11/01.

We didn't start it, but I believe that if the President remains in office, we're damn well going to finish it.

Posted by: John at October 31, 2004 06:58 PM

So the MSM made sure we all knew about a new OBL tape, but it took over 48 hours for the unedited version to leak. Nope, no bias there.

Posted by: Retread at October 31, 2004 07:08 PM

I think the analysis that Bin Laden 'wants a time out' is waaaaay optimistic. When Bid Laden says that if we leave him alone, he'll leave us alone...I believe that by 'leave him alone' he means: withdraw all American personnel from the entire Middle East, and any other country he wants; withdraw all support of Israel; support Muslim dictatorships in the UN; support Palestine in destroying Israel.

Posted by: bkayel at October 31, 2004 07:52 PM

I believe that by 'leave him alone' he means: withdraw all American personnel from the entire Middle East, and any other country he wants; withdraw all support of Israel; support Muslim dictatorships in the UN; support Palestine in destroying Israel.

True enough, but compare the way he phrases his statements in this video with his previous issuance of demands; they weren't recitations of complaints, rather dire threats of destruction.

He's giving an impression of weakness. And no one is saying that he would hold to any sort of truce, he just may want to buy time.

Posted by: Bill from INDC at October 31, 2004 07:59 PM

Just hand over the Jews, then we can talk about your place in our theocracy.

Osama (lets make a deal) Bin Laden

Posted by: osama bin hiding at October 31, 2004 08:45 PM

- MEMRI doesn't need to guess whether BinLaden has an education concerning the US government/Election structure. As most of his 26 royal brothers he was schooled in two Western universities...I'm not surprised that a portion of the tape was withheld. It will be interesting to see if it "leaks" before election day.....

Posted by: Hunter at October 31, 2004 09:07 PM

It's a ruse. He's not making the same mistake as on 09/11 when he expected us to fall apart at the seams. This time he's aiming for that "soft, liberal American heart", making puppy dog eyes, and hinting that "I'd stop if only you would stop, too."

Don't believe that lying bastard for a second.

Posted by: BorgQueen at October 31, 2004 09:24 PM

But Bill,your analysis fails to consider how "tan and healthy" Osama looked. And my, what great production values--he had a lecturn and everything-- for a man taking credit for killing 3,000 people, and threatening 280 million others. Oh, I almost forgot, did you see he was wearing a gold robe--that shows he a statesman, you know, not just a mass murderer. Having listened to the analysis of the experts, I now know these are the issues that really matter about Prime Minister Bin Laden.

Posted by: PDS at October 31, 2004 09:29 PM

Too bad that bit about "each state that votes against Bush has guaranteed its own security" won't be widely broadcast, else we might see a 50 state sweep (for Bush).

In an interview somewhere, several years ago, Bin Laden predicted that states would start seceding from the Union over the Federal government's support of Israel, which shows he has a particularly delusional view of American politics.

(I've found that the interview was with Robert Fisk, but I can't find a reliable link to a transcript.)

Posted by: Angie Schultz at October 31, 2004 10:31 PM

OBL must not have been paying close enough attention to Michael Moore before 9/11 otherwise NYC and Washington, D.C. would have "guaranteed their safety." This would be laughable except for the moonbats who are flocking to vote pro-Bin Laden.

Posted by: Ghost of a flea at October 31, 2004 11:28 PM

Oh my, is this a taste of what might happen in a John Kerry administration? How comforting is it to learn that John Kerry takes a poll *before* acting?

http://snipurl.com/a75h

This is troubling in a big way. What happened to leading based on principles? Must everything be polled before any action is taken?

"All this polling was done following the news on Bin Laden. Let me just mention that, as part of that, and we're very cautious about this - we added a question - this poll was intended to be fielded independent of the events - we added a question this morning that was only in the 250 interviews that was conducted on Saturday and I read it just to try to suggest that we ought to be a little bit cautious in interpreting what we think will be the consequence of these events."

Yikes.

Here's what VP Cheney said about the polling fiasco: "The thing that I find amazing about it is that John Kerry's first response was to go conduct a poll... He went into the field ... to find out what he should say about this tape of Osama bin Laden."

That's sad. Already politico colleagues are poking fun at Kerry's "leadership" style.

Considering recent polls, namely http://msnbc.msn.com/id/6376974/ , indicating the public's views on terrorism and those "missing" explosives, seems like folks are keenly aware of which guy leads based on principle and who leads based on polls.

Shrum's shop [which conducted the above-mentioned poll] offers interesting results in their recent poll -- http://www.democracycorps.com/reports/index.html

Frankly, it's worrisome when the occupant in the Oval Office makes decisions based on polls. There are too many life-threatening matters [ie, national security] that require immediate action on the part of folks running this country. This super-scary revelation doesn't inspire confidence in John Kerry. Not in the least bit.

Posted by: andy at October 31, 2004 11:39 PM

- Actually, as awkward as it looks. you can't have it both ways. At this point with the polls STILL showing a light Bush lead after trying everything in the book and a few new twists the DNC is fishing for anything it can find for an edge. But after the Mary Cheney fiasco they're overly caustious. Thus the poll. It is in fitting with Kerry's propensity to be a "possibilities junky" and poll everyone he can find with an opinion before deciding things....

- I'm a bit uncomfortable with the proported additional excepts since the news piece gives no firm indication of who actually has a full video other than "people who have seen" and a reference to an "anti-terrorist" expert...

Posted by: Hunter at November 1, 2004 12:40 AM

Bush will sweep to an easy win despite the resurrection tactics of the Dhimmiecrats. Osama's tape only serves to show how effective Bush has been in contrast to the Clinton and its supposed Kerry foreign policies. I just hope when Osama is caught he is buried inside a dead pig.

Posted by: Thomas J. Jackson at November 1, 2004 01:37 AM

The last update where he singles out states that vote Bush is disturbingly insightful, imho. Unfortunately, playing one state off the other is much more effective than threaten the whole. I suspect OBL is getting much more input from someone who has a good understanding of America lately. An understanding that is more than from just a typical American convert.

Posted by: John at November 1, 2004 09:30 AM

'I suspect OBL is getting much more input from someone who has a good understanding of America lately. '

Yeah - the Kerry campaign staff.

Posted by: jacktanner at November 1, 2004 10:09 AM

Well, it may be time to don my tin foil hat. When many people were starting to believe OBL was dead, Kerry & his campaign started fist pounding that OBL was still on the lose with a certainty. That was a big risk, especially if he was caught or proven dead at some point before Nov 2. But low & behold an OBL tape shows up just before the election as a nice exclaimation point to Kerry's position.

I'm not saying there's any deals or direct communication, but somehow I suspect the Democrats learned he was alive (and possibly a message was coming).

End lunatic rant.

Posted by: John at November 1, 2004 10:30 AM

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