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October 27, 2004
Upsetting Conventional Wisdom (UPDATED)

Posted by Bill

CW says: "Undecideds always break for the challenger."

Not according to this Rasmussen Reports survey:

Those who made up their mind earlier in the process tend to be more supportive of Senator Kerry. Those who made up their mind later in the process are more supportive of the President. This is consistent with the fact that Senator Kerry led in most polls through mid-August and has generally trailed since Labor Day and the Republican National Convention.

Among voters who made up their minds in the Spring of 2004 or sooner, Kerry is favored by a 51% to 48% margin.
...
The candidates are essentially tied among those who made up their minds during the summer. However, those who decided in the past month favor President Bush by a 57% to 38% margin.

Keep talking Senator, keep talking. Let's see how many times you can say "Mary Cheney's a lesbian" before election day.

(Thanks to Michael Kim)

UPDATE: Ace has more on the phenomenon.

Posted by Bill at October 27, 2004 11:59 AM | TrackBack (2)

Comments

criminy. thank you for doing my homework. I am sick of this one being touted as part of a foregone conclusion for Kerry. it's also part of why I ignore polling; it's like high school. mostly its function is to keep a lot of folks busy.

Posted by: tee bee at October 27, 2004 12:28 PM

Here’s more support for the view that the remaining undecideds are not going to wreck Bush.

Posted by: Lastango at October 27, 2004 12:57 PM

Further, the CW was based on a number surveys taken when there were Republican Presidents which meant that the challenger was a Dem. So? Well, the CW does not take into account the fact that partisanship remains the biggest predictor of vote choice. So? This matters because there are now more registered Republicans than registered Democrats (not the case for the past 72 years or so) so that when push comes to shove more people should break Bush than Kerry.

Or so goes my wishful thinking.

Posted by: Rusty Shackleford at October 27, 2004 01:30 PM

Not surprising. The more visible Kerry is, the less people like him. Didn't we all realize this some time ago? Wasn't there a month a while back where he all but disappeared? And during the time his numbers went up, up, up? Stay on the news Kerry! We want to see your ugly mug every night!

Posted by: amy at October 27, 2004 01:33 PM

Pat Caddell, Carter's pollster, said essentially the same on Hannity and Colmes last night. In Presidential elections, sometimes undecidededs break for the incumbent as a risk-management stratagem.

Steve Bragg
DOUBLE TOOTHPICKS

Posted by: Steve Bragg at October 27, 2004 02:40 PM

My personal theory: true undecideds don't vote; they are "undecided" because they are apathetic, uninformed, or alienated. Other so-called "undecideds," assuming they are serious participants in the process, decided weeks ago.

Posted by: MD at October 27, 2004 07:49 PM

Posted by: puppettz at October 30, 2004 02:06 AM