Well, statistics are funny things, the way I read it, someone other that Bush or Kerry has a 2.6% chance of being elected.

They have this single most glaring error. They are only as accurate as the weighting given to Democrats and Republicans are in the polls they are using.

If the internals are available for a given poll, and I agree with the weightings, I will give a small credence to a particular poll, but since they aren't even telling us which polls they are using (which some other very well known electoral map consolidators are doing), I'm afraid I have to give this one a complete and total pass.

I like their answer though :)

I want it to be true, but like Thad I'd like to see what polling data they're using.

Love the yard sign, and I agree with it completely.

Great yard sign.

It's odd, but around my neck of the woods (where Bush will carry 70% or more of the votes) there are very few yard signs about national candidates. There are a ton of signs for locals, particularly Sheriff, which slighty alarms me, I mean, what if you put up a sign, and the other guy wins... (just kidding)

Actually, that's fromage mangeant le singe de reddition

Google language tools says that would be: "Cheese eating the rendering monkey" is that what it was supposed to be?

The missing 2.6% doesn't necessarily go to a 3rd party; it could be part of an error term or model uncertainty.

Chirac is a cheese eating the worm?

Er, doesn't that say (roughly) Chirac is a worm-eating cheese?

Chirac est un ver qui mange fromage.

(Something like that. Too lazy to babelfish.)

Is that better?

Not "qui mange fromage" but "qui mange du fromage".

And "je consens" is not really at his place here (not false either).
"Je suis daccord" (= "i agree") is much much better.

"Je suis daccord! Chirac est un ver qui mange du fromage"
ou
"Chirac est un ver à fromage"

;-)

Hi all,

This is off topic, but I figured you were the people to turn to for information. Anyone know anything about PIPA (program on international policy attitudes). A liberal friend of mine sent me a link to their homepage which has a unique election article www.pipa.org. I'm tryin to dig up some dirt on PIPA--just the name sounds like it might be some LLL group. Thanks!

Digging up dirt? What do we look like? CBS News?

The proper spelling of the French term for agreement is d'accord. It usually stands by itself when used as an interjection.

Text...

Excuse me. I should have rephrased "digging for dirt." I meant to say exposing the truth, in an un-See B S way.

Bill...

We need to jump on this Hassan Nemazee story. The public must know.

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=41077

Let's not forget the Weekly Reader: Bush-66% and Kerry-33%. Although not scientific at all, it has predicted every winner since 1956! I like the numbers. Two other nationwide school polls resulted in a Bush win.

The weekly reader one doesn't surprise me.

When I recently subbed for 4th grade, we read an article about campaigns and the election proccess. More than half of the class amused themselves by coloring mustaches and horns on the picture of Kerry.

Yes Matthew you of course are right, it's "d'accord".

thanks

Just what are they smokin' at Stanford these days? I'll see their absurd "76.4%" chance of winning and raise them the following four sites. Read 'em and weep:

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

http://synapse.princeton.edu/~sam/pollcalc.html

http://www.spacerad.com/electoral/

http://www.dalythoughts.com/ecb.htm

Like Thad O I find the absence of yard signs interesting. As I posted here in my nominally solidly Democratic neighborhood in Chicago there are no yard signs and no bumper stickers. It wasn't like this four years ago.

Dave, around these parts, Philly, where Bush will get whomped, I have noticed that he is pulling far ahead in the bumper sticker race. Last night when I went to Bed, Bath, & Beyond (laugh if you must--I bought a blender, but it was Black & Decker, so I retain my masculinity--and, I needed it to make beer) and saw about four or five Bush bumper stickers and zero for Kerry.

As for the yard sign race, that's very different for some reason. Perhaps it has something to do with the Kerry campaign handing them out all over town lately.

The Princeton Study links to the Daily Kos where the author states:

Mon Jul 19th, 2004 at 21:37:26 GMT

Dear fellow Kos readers,
I am undertaking a meta-analysis of state polling data to calculate a current snapshot of the probable range of election outcomes. Like most of you, I have a strong bias about how I want the presidential election to turn out. However, I wanted a measure that did not have that bias. Read my preliminary findings here.

"When I recently subbed for 4th grade, we read an article about campaigns and the election proccess. More than half of the class amused themselves by coloring mustaches and horns on the picture of Kerry."

Hahahahaha. Awesome, best laugh I've had all morning. For what it's worth, I remember doing that to Dukakis in the 3rd grade.

Yes, I am a young'un.

All this French is giving me a headache. I don't need a whole language to surrender should I ever lose my spine. Voting for the democrats will be sufficient enough.

KBiel, some tylonal3 or perhaps just some aspirin chases those French headache blues away