INDC Journal

« Post-Mortem on the Draft Scare | Main | CBS News: Still "Digging" »

October 10, 2004
FLASHBACK - October 9, 2002

Kerry: Bush Should Have Moved on Iraq "Earlier," "After September 11th"

Posted by Bill

I can't stand it when people claim that "Bush lied!" when he made a case for war based on the CIA's intelligence assessment of Iraq's WMD capability and inventory. An accusation of dishonesty is a serious charge, especially when it refers to the application of military force based on subjective source material. But when John Kerry claims that his position on Iraq has always been consistent, and further claims that the administration misled the American people, isn't he the one employing blatant deception about such a deadly serious topic?

For example, John Kerry's newest talking point claims that President Bush took his "eye off the ball" by raising the Iraq issue after September 11th, the "ball" being the exclusive hunt for Osama bin Laden and the elements of Al Qaeda that remained in Afghanistan. So then tell me - why, in his October 9, 2002 speech just prior to his vote affirming the authorization for the use of force, did John Kerry criticize the Bush Administration for not moving sooner against Iraq, after September 11th?

But the administration missed an opportunity 2 years ago and particularly a year ago after September 11. They regrettably, and even clumsily, complicated their own case. The events of September 11 created new understanding of the terrorist threat and the degree to which every nation is vulnerable. That understanding enabled the administration to form a broad and impressive coalition against terrorism. Had the administration tried then to capitalize on this unity of spirit to build a coalition to disarm Iraq, we would not be here in the pressing days before an election, late in this year, debating this now. The administration's decision to engage on this issue now, rather than a year ago or earlier, and the manner in which it has engaged, has politicized and complicated the national debate and raised questions about the credibility of their case.

And while much of the speech speaks of the pressing need for a multilateral approach and provides plenty of wiggle room for hindsight criticism, his statements about the serious nature of the threat are very clear, and stunningly contradict post-conflict assertions about Bush's honesty. Below the fold is a series of very long, very relevant excerpts from John Kerry's speech that sound suspiciously similar to the exact rationale used by the Bush Administration in the run-up to the war. I've added emphasis that I find appropriate:

I have said publicly for years that weapons of mass destruction in the hands of Saddam Hussein pose a real and grave threat to our security and that of our allies in the Persian Gulf region. Saddam Hussein's record bears this out.

I have talked about that record. Iraq never fully accounted for the major gaps and inconsistencies in declarations provided to the inspectors of the pre-Gulf war weapons of mass destruction program, nor did the Iraq regime provide credible proof that it had completely destroyed its weapons and production infrastructure.

He has continually failed to meet the obligations imposed by the international community on Iraq at the end of the Persian Gulf the Iraqi regime provide credible proof war to declare and destroy its weapons of mass destruction and delivery systems and to forego the development of nuclear weapons. during the 7 years of weapons inspections, the Iraqi regime repeatedly frustrated the work of the UNSCOM--Special Commission--inspectors, culminating in 1998 in their ouster. Even during the period of inspections, Iraq never fully accounted for major gaps and inconsistencies in declarations provided to the inspectors of its pre-gulf war WMD programs, nor did the Iraqi regime provide credible proof that it had completely destroyed its weapons stockpiles and production infrastructure.

It is clear that in the 4 years since the UNSCOM inspectors were forced out, Saddam Hussein has continued his quest for weapons of mass destruction. According to intelligence, Iraq has chemical and biological weapons as well as missiles with ranges in excess of the 150 kilometer restriction imposed by the United Nations in the ceasefire resolution. Although Iraq's chemical weapons capability was reduced during the UNSCOM inspections, Iraq has maintained its chemical weapons effort over the last 4 years. Evidence suggests that it has begun renewed production of chemical warfare agents, probably including mustard gas, sarin, cyclosarin, and VX. Intelligence reports show that Iraq has invested more heavily in its biological weapons programs over the 4 years, with the result that all key aspects of this program--R&D, production and weaponization--are active. Most elements of the program are larger and more advanced than they were before the gulf war. Iraq has some lethal and incapacitating agents and is capable of quickly producing and weaponizing a variety of such agents, including anthrax, for delivery on a range of vehicles such as bombs, missiles, aerial sprayers, and covert operatives which could bring them to the United States homeland. Since inspectors left, the Iraqi regime has energized its missile program, probably now consisting of a few dozen Scud-type missiles with ranges of 650 to 900 kilometers that could hit Israel, Saudi Arabia and other U.S. allies in the region. In addition, Iraq is developing unmanned aerial vehicles UAVs, capable of delivering chemical and biological warfare agents, which could threaten Iraq's neighbors as well as American forces in the Persian Gulf.

Prior to the gulf war, Iraq had an advance nuclear weapons development program. Although UNSCOM and IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors learned much about Iraq's efforts in this area, Iraq has failed to provide complete information on all aspects of its program. Iraq has maintained its nuclear scientists and technicians as well as sufficient dual-use manufacturing capability to support a reconstituted nuclear weapons program. Iraqi defectors who once worked for Iraq's nuclear weapons establishment have reportedly told American officials that acquiring nuclear weapons is a top priority for Saddam Hussein's regime.

According to the CIA's report, all U.S. intelligence experts agree that Iraq is seeking nuclear weapons. There is little question that Saddam Hussein wants to develop nuclear weapons. The more difficult question to answer is when Iraq could actually achieve this goal. That depends on is its ability to acquire weapons-grade fissile material. If Iraq could acquire this material from abroad, the CIA estimates that it could have a nuclear weapon within 1 year.

Absent a foreign supplier, it might be longer. There is no question that Saddam Hussein represents a threat. I have heard even my colleagues who oppose the President's resolution say we have to hold Saddam Hussein accountable. They also say we have to force the inspections. And to force the inspections, you have to be prepared to use force. So the issue is not over the question of whether or not the threat is real, or whether or not people agree there is a threat. It is over what means we will take, and when, in order to try to eliminate it.
...
As bad as he is, Saddam Hussein, the dictator, is not the cause of war. Saddam Hussein sitting in Baghdad with an arsenal of weapons of mass destruction is a different matter. In the wake of September 11, who among us can say, with any certainty, to anybody, that those weapons might not be used against our troops or against allies in the region? Who can say that this master of miscalculation will not develop a weapon of mass destruction even greater--a nuclear weapon--then reinvade Kuwait, push the Kurds out, attack Israel, any number of scenarios to try to further his ambitions to be the pan-Arab leader or simply to confront in the region, and once again miscalculate the response, to believe he is stronger because he has those weapons?

And while the administration has failed to provide any direct link between Iraq and the events of September 11, can we afford to ignore the possibility that Saddam Hussein might accidentally, as well as purposely, allow those weapons to slide off to one group or other in a region where weapons are the currency of trade? How do we leave that to chance?

That is why the enforcement mechanism through the United Nations and the reality of the potential of the use of force is so critical to achieve the protection of long-term interests, not just of the United States but of the world, to understand that the dynamic has changed, that we are living in a different status today, that we cannot sit by and be as complacent or even negligent about weapons of mass destruction and proliferation as we have been in the past.

The Iraqi regime's record over the decade leaves little doubt that Saddam Hussein wants to retain his arsenal of weapons of mass destruction and, obviously, as we have said, grow it. These weapons represent an unacceptable threat.

Given the specificity and inaccuracy of these statements about Saddam's continuing WMD stockpiles and capability, isn't it fair for Kerry to make the assessment that he also "misled" the American people in a speech on the floor of the Senate?

I know that this isn't exactly news to most of my readers, but John Kerry's new criticisms of the Bush Administration's focus on Iraq, if not the particulars of the execution of that focus, are simply not credible to the point of being patronizing, outright deceptions. Lies, even.

Posted by Bill at October 10, 2004 12:25 AM | TrackBack (5)

Comments

I don't know if you've seen it but there is a tape of an interview Kerry did about two years ago. It was either Russert or Matthews. I think the former. When asked about Iraq, Kerry was as hawkish as anyone could be. He was even asked pointedly, "you sound like you are ahead of the President and you colleagues in the house on this." He replied, "Yes, I am ahead of them on disarming Saddam Hussein.

Maybe I'll see when he was on with Russert and look for a transcript if I get time.

Posted by: Dan at October 10, 2004 01:03 AM

bill,

You could almost put the entire speech in bold.

With the Bush criticisms aside, I would guess this speech was made by the president.

Posted by: deltanine at October 10, 2004 02:02 AM

Wow, that almost sounds like maybe he flip-flopped on the issue.

Posted by: TallDave at October 10, 2004 02:29 AM

Read my flips.

Posted by: Al at October 10, 2004 03:06 AM

I am sure that Karl Rove has this tape ready to go, for the last week before the election.

Posted by: FH at October 10, 2004 03:25 AM

The problem, of course, is that neither the Senator nor his moonbat supporters nor his wingmen in the mainstream media care in the slightest about Iraq or terrorism let alone consistency.

Posted by: Ghost of a flea at October 10, 2004 08:43 AM

The problem, of course, is that neither the Senator nor his moonbat supporters nor his wingmen in the mainstream media care in the slightest about Iraq or terrorism let alone consistency.

But some people, somewhere DO, and he needs their votes. Otherwise, he'd run naked through Boston common with a "Peace" banner. And a Gucci man-bag.

Posted by: Bill from INDC at October 10, 2004 08:56 AM

The only problem, is the new mantra is that Kerry was basing his decisions/speeches/hawkish opinions on all the lies Bush was telling him about Iraq.

I believe he changes his mind, and that Cheney was dead on, when he said he changed it as the politics change, but the Kerry camp and his supporters are full of excuses.

Posted by: Just Me at October 10, 2004 08:58 AM

STOP IT! STOP IT! STOP IT!

You're trying to hold Senator John Kerry to his record. But he's not a 'liberal' as he'll gladly tell you now. Sure, he's been wrong his entire career but right now he's saying-- that's right he's telling every American with his words, not deeds which would be too easy to fake-- he's getting it right.

For goodness sake Bill, he's accusing President Bush of not telling the truth and you insist on trying to discern what Kerry actually means? Gosh, if Derrida wasn't dead he could tell you full well words don't actually have any 'meaning'!!

Quit picking on Senator "tax and spend from Mass" Kerry.

Republican shill...

/sarcasm

Posted by: Birkel at October 10, 2004 09:30 AM

Do you think it's his face growing longer with each lie instead of his nose?

Bill: "But some people, somewhere DO, and he needs their votes."

I don't think he's going to get enough of them to win. Too many of the people who bother to vote are able to add one plus one and get two.

Posted by: Retread at October 10, 2004 10:19 AM

Of course, now we know that the reason Bush didn't get to build a bigger coalition is that the French, Russians and Chinese were being bought off by Saddam. But that obviously is Bush's fault.

Posted by: Robert at October 10, 2004 10:53 AM

Great post!. I truly believe Sen Kerry believes he has been consistent on his Iraq postion. After reading the speech, he was consistent. He was for and against the war, before President Bush even had a position. He could point to this speech and no matter what the outcome, he could position himself on the most popular side.

Sen Kerry is a consumate snake.

Posted by: Mike at October 10, 2004 11:48 AM

I am not sure how this is different from what Kerry is saying today. As he said:

"So the issue is not over the question of whether or not the threat is real, or whether or not people agree there is a threat. It is over what means we will take, and when, in order to try to eliminate it."

As Kerry has said over and over, he is critical of the way that Bush has gone about the war in Iraq.

And at Friday's debate:

"KERRY: Well, let me tell you straight up: I've never changed my mind about Iraq. I do believe Saddam Hussein was a threat. I always believed he was a threat. Believed it in 1998 when Clinton was president. I wanted to give Clinton the power to use force if necessary.

But I would have used that force wisely, I would have used that authority wisely, not rushed to war without a plan to win the peace."

Sure you can call it monday morning quarterbacking, but the criticisms of Bush's execution of the war are valid. And there are serious questions about how Bush described the threat Saddam posed – even with the intelligence information he had at that time.

From Kerry’s speech:

“If we do wind up going to war with Iraq, it is imperative that we do so with others in the international community, unless there is a showing of a grave, imminent--and I emphasize "imminent"--threat to this country which requires the President to respond in a way that protects our immediate national security needs.”

Posted by: Rollins at October 10, 2004 12:35 PM

Rollins -

"So the issue is not over the question of whether or not the threat is real, or whether or not people agree there is a threat. It is over what means we will take, and when, in order to try to eliminate it."

I anticipated and understand that criticism. I address this in my post:

John Kerry's new criticisms of the Bush Administration's focus on Iraq, if not the particulars of the execution of that focus, are simply not credible

John Kerry has criticized the President's coalition-building (though I find it unrealistic) and post-war planning - these are fair game.

But he also has taken to criticizing the Aministration's FOCUS on Iraq after 9-11, claiming that it diverted resources. In contrast, kerry's judgement that Iraq was a worthy threat is a very real and stark contradiction. A couple of things:

1. Authorizing force based with the desire for international cooperation is one thing, but if that cooperation is not obtained, and Kerry's statements are taken at face value about Saddam's threat, it's gross negliegence not to act. Period. Debating that is s different argument from the one that Kerry is making.

2. John Kerry urged a specific EARLIER focus on Iraq, AFTER 9-11. You can't marshall a coalition and pressure Saddam for complete inspections WITHOUT a massive military build-up in the area, as Kerry specifically highlights in the extended speech.

In effect, he explicitly endorsed policies, that by his new assessment, diverted resources away from the work in Afghanistan. His new rhetoric is nakedly dishonest distortion.

One can still disagree with Bush and want to vote for Kerry, but the idea that Kerry will better represent your anti-war view is ludicrous. He shifts to an insulting, outrageous degree.

The crticism in my post is 100% correct.

Posted by: Bill from INDC at October 10, 2004 12:48 PM

Rollins, the only problem is that during the exact same debate on Friday, he also said that Iraq was not a threat and that we should have focused on Bin Laden/Iran/NoKo.

I keep trying to be unpartisan and understand what he's saying and he still confuses the hell out of me.

And what's interesting is, it's [Iran] a threat that has grown while the president has been preoccupied with Iraq, where there wasn't a threat.

SOMEBODY HELP ME UNDERSTAND THIS!

Posted by: Elric at October 10, 2004 01:06 PM

He did something similar in the first debate. He asked if Iraq was a mistake in a question and said no. 10 minutes later, he's ripping into stump speech mode and says "but the president made a mistake invading Iraq".

This level of confusing rhetoric has to be more than just political wind changing. Right?

Posted by: Elric at October 10, 2004 01:10 PM

Sorry for spamming, should wait a minute or two before posting in case I think of something else.

What scares the most about what Kerry he says is when he says that the money that we've spent on Iraq could have been used on things like...health care. But he wants to increase military forces in Iraq...but save money for it on firehouses in NY instead of Baghdad. Or something. Is he just clutching on any vacuous criticism of the WoT or does he sincerly believe we should focus on domestic policies instead of national defense. Although he probably said "hunt you down and destroy you wherever you are" 10 minutes before or after saying that. That's until he says that terrorists are in 60 countries and we can't possibly hunt them all down. And then he says something else.

ARRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRGGGGGGGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!

Some of the "flip flop" criticisms are admittedly spinned. I don't consider his Patriot Act criticism flippy. But when he starts talking about military force, he makes my head spin like the Exorcist.

Posted by: Elric at October 10, 2004 01:17 PM

To know something is false but claim it's true is to mislead (lie). Bush, Kerry, and the world's intelligence organizations thought Iraq had WMDs. No lie here.
Kerry however, knows there's no lie (unless he's claiming Bush knew in advance there were no WMDs), but knowingly misleads (lies to) people about it anyway. Who's the liar?

Posted by: Sandy at October 10, 2004 01:49 PM

You said man-bag!

Bwa ha ha!

Posted by: Ghost of a flea at October 10, 2004 01:50 PM

Yet more examples of Kerry's flip flopping.

Kerry flip flops because he lacks the character to take a stand out of true conviction. He is too much a political animal, just caring about short term polls and popularity.

That alone makes Kerry unfit to be president, especially in time of war. That kind of lack of leadership can very well get Americans killed.

Posted by: Another Thought at October 10, 2004 02:28 PM

Bill -
I think what Kerry was saying was that if the war in Iraq was suppose to be about getting WMD’s then yes, since we believed Saddam had them, then we should have pursued that at the same time as going to Afghanistan. The debate at that time was going on right before the mid-term elections, so you had a lot of political posturing and campaign rhetoric getting in the way of real discussions of the issues.

To your points- 1. Kerry said you should have a coalition unless the threat was imminent – then you take action even if you don't have a coalition.

2. I don’t see where Kerry is suggesting you take resources from Afghanistan to go after Saddam.

Your post is 100% your opinion. Also, I am not anti-war, I don’t know why you say that. I believe Kerry will lead a more effective war on terror.

Posted by: Rollins at October 10, 2004 02:48 PM

I've often thought that a really good Bush commercial (which they did to an extent on the windsurfing ad) would be to have Kerry in split screen debating himself. But beyond that, though, I'm continually amazed that Kerry isn't auguring in like Dukakis. Ignoring all else, I'd've thought the basic illogic of many of Kerry's positions would be apparent to even the dullest among us. The illogic of stating at one point that the Pres. wasn't focussed enough on Iraq and then later subscribing to the whole Bin Laden cult thing -- well it makes my head hurt. That is until you realize that he was likely trying to position himself for this election. If Bush goes in after a speech like that and kicks butt & finds WMD, Kerry can say he was out ahead of the issue and take the national security issue away from the Republicans. I suspect he's currently executing the backup plan to the above... "nuance" the hell outta everything so that he can always pull out a quote to fit the situation.

- Eric.

Posted by: Eric S. at October 10, 2004 04:05 PM

Once again Kerry's brazen opportunism is highlighted. It is after all, the defining characteristic of his political life. If the man has any core beliefs other than a desire for power, it is indiscernable to me.

Posted by: Swede at October 10, 2004 04:40 PM

"Kerry flip flops because he lacks the character to take a stand out of true conviction. He is too much a political animal, just caring about short term polls and popularity. "

I absolutely agree with this assessment.

This is one of the reasons I intend to vote for Bush.

Posted by: Just Me at October 10, 2004 05:28 PM

Rollins -

Your logic skills are rusty on thsi one, and it annoys me that you cannot absorb and logically prioritze the mans words. As he planned, there's something for everyone I suppose.

1. I think what Kerry was saying was that if the war in Iraq was suppose to be about

There is no "think what he is saying." There is "saying." Kerry makes a judgment about the threat from Iraq with the SAME intelligence provided to the President. If that information, which he outlines in his speech, is the information that you choose to believe based on the assessment by US intelligence, based on Kerry's own words, you act.

2. The talk of imminence and allies are irrelevant. How is Kerry, Bush or any other human being supposed to m ake a judgement to go to war with the ASSUMPTION that they will be able to know the imminence (we didn't) and that allies would sign on? Read it again. Kerry describes in very uncertain terms, based on the same intelligence that Bush had, the threat from Saddam. The simple failure to understand the inconsistencies in the various arguments is frustrating.

Kerry isn't making the argument that the President misled the American poeple because Saddam didn't have WMD there, he's making the President's exact argument, and throwing in escape hatches sp that he'd have room to equivicate and criticize if things went badly.

You cannot assess the real; nature of a threat and then say "but only if you get allies." this is the exact foreign policy that Kerry is defending himself against (global test).

3. I don’t see where Kerry is suggesting you take resources from Afghanistan to go after Saddam.

Kerry asserts that the credible threat of force (which hinges on military build-up) is necessary to force Saddam Hussein to finally comply, voicing approval for the President's military appropriation to Kuwait, etc. He then authorizes the power to wage war, but only after reaffirming the nature of the threat from Saddam and criticizing the President for not takling advantage of the international unity and dealing with Iraq sooner AFTER 9-11.

Now I realize that some folks' world is made of sunshine and candy canes, and that tinpot dictators like Saddam Hussein take orders from the international community without a gun to their head (in the form of a few hundred thousand troops), but it's pretty explicit what is necessary to take John Kerry's advice: The same military build-up that he claims would also siphon resources away from Afghanistan. Even if you ignored that possibility, a mere endorsement of the willingness to use force siphons resources!

There are arguments that he can make now (and he has made) that do not contradict his previous statements, but he has moved to a new level of rhetoric that is pure deception.

This is not opinion, it is fact. Take the time to read the whole speech, then listen to last Friday's debate, draw a damn chart if you need to. And I'll leave you with this ...

And while the administration has failed to provide any direct link between Iraq and the events of September 11, can we afford to ignore the possibility that Saddam Hussein might accidentally, as well as purposely, allow those weapons to slide off to one group or other in a region where weapons are the currency of trade? How do we leave that to chance?
...
The Iraqi regime's record over the decade leaves little doubt that Saddam Hussein wants to retain his arsenal of weapons of mass destruction and, obviously, as we have said, grow it. These weapons represent an unacceptable threat.

Posted by: Bill from INDC at October 10, 2004 07:06 PM

Pre-flip flopping (at least on this issue). Kerry changes position more often than I change my socks. If the Flat Earth society became a political force Kerry would tell us the Navy should stay in port so they don't fall off the end of the world. I can respect a person who firmly believes his convictions - even if I disagree with them (Alan Colmes comes to mind). I can not respect a person who changes "beliefs" based on opinion polls and for political gain. If he truly felt this way then, then why the drastic change now? Can anyone say "political expediency"? I said it before and I will say it again: the Dems will "slander any person, obfuscate any position" in order to win an election.

Posted by: Pete at October 10, 2004 07:47 PM

Kerry did not vote to immediately send it the troops, he voted to give Bush the authority to use force only AFTER other options had been exhausted. This speech shows how reluctantly he gave that authority and how he expected Bush to use that authority wisely, with the cooperation of a broad coalition of allies, and only as a last resort.

That vote helped convince the UN to pass new tougher resolutions against Saddam and got Saddam to let the weapons inspectors back in and to cooperate with the weapons inspectors. Bush kicked out the inspectors without letting them finish the job. Those weapons inspectors were the best hope for disarming Saddam peacefully and keeping him disarmed without going to war. We now know what the inspectors would have found if they had been permitted to stay: no weapons, no active weapons programs.

Bush bears the responsibility for this ill-considered and poorly executed war. More than a hundred billion dollars later, with thousands of Americans maimed or wounded, thousands of Iraqis killed, and more than a thousand Americans dead, Iraq is a mess. Even the green zone isn't safe. And there's no end in sight for the American occupation. How long will it take America's reputation to recover from the stain of Abu Ghraib? Bush's war has been a disaster.

Kerry specifically and emphatically warned Bush of the risk of this kind of outcome if Bush pursued war without the support of the world community and without the necessary preparations to do the hard work of building a new nation in Iraq. Bush should have listened.

Posted by: Will at October 15, 2004 11:52 PM

I just wonder. How long would 'winning the peace' have taken were it not for the 'self-fullfilling prophecy' of the Democratic and liberal media rhetoric. They've done more to encourage the insurgency and enflame anti-american sentiment across the world than disarming a mad man should have wrought. What is the rest of the world supposed to think about the spread of freedom when it's being headed by a supposed incompentant, lieing, oil hungry opportunist. When that notion is advanced by so many supposed statesmen with the help of the "objective media", we may as well bring the boys home and get ready to protect ourselves at home. Freedom can't be advanced with that kind of rhetoric leading the way. John Kerry does not believe freedom can change societies and stop the resentment. John Kerry has not mentioned any believe in the liberating power or freedom. John Kerry is a traitor...always has been...always will be...unfit for command.

Posted by: devin at October 23, 2004 10:13 PM