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September 24, 2004
Surprising Takes on Allawi (UPDATED)

Posted by Bill

I'm pretty blown away by the largely positive tone of the WaPo's profile of Allawi:

Iraq's Dynamo
Prime Minister Ayad Allawi Generates a Can-Do Aura

He is, said a U.S. congressional official who follows Iraq, a tough guy trying to bring to Iraqis the thing they really want.

"They want a badass guy who is going to solve the security problem," this official said.

And they've got Allawi.

The article sucks some of the oxygen out of Kerry's disturbing choice to directly attack Allawi's speech to Congress. I realize that candidates have to spin things as negatively as possible in the months just prior to the election, but Kerry's choice to directly confront the prestige of a struggling ally is nakedly unscrupulous, and hence constitutes a foolish political move as he attempts to sway moderates that still believe in the possibility of a successful Iraq.

But even if one believes that everything that Kerry said were true, a much wiser course of action would have compelled him to focus all of his criticism on Bush, effectively inferring criticism of Allawi. His strategy to attack the Iraqi directly befuddles me, and his decision to exploit the event deeply offends me. Kerry's stump speech perfectly reinforces the popular perception that he values political advantage over the greater good.

To be honest, I'm not sure how Iraq will turn out with another Bush Administration, but it seems fairly evident where the policy will head under Kerry's captainship.

UPDATE: Using some uncharacteristically pointed language, Glenn Reynolds expresses a similar sentiment about Lockhart's supplemental attack on Allawi:

This is behavior that is absolutely unacceptable coming from a Presidential campaign in wartime, and it's not an isolated incident but part of a pattern of such behavior. Joe Lockhart should apologize for these remarks, and Kerry should fire him. Otherwise you're going to hear a lot of people questioning Kerry's patriotism. And they'll be right to.

Hmmm. Maybe they should talk about the Texas Air National Guard ...

UPDATE: The motivation behind Kerry's new line on Iraq is revealed in a new poll by the Economist (links to a pdf file):

ECONOMIST/YOUGOV POLL SAYS VOTERS ARE PESSIMISTIC ABOUT IRAQ BUT CONVINCED AMERICA IS DOING GOOD

New York, NY Barely six weeks from polling day, the spotlight in America's election this week swivelled from a war that ended some 30 years ago in Indochina to the war raging right now in Iraq. Neither George Bush nor John Kerry is giving a completely straight account to voters. The American people, however, are making up their own minds about the war and according to the latest Economist/YouGov poll, the majority are pessimistic about how it is going but convinced that America is doing good.

Of 1,792 registered voters polled in this week's Economist/YouGov poll, 48% are not optimistic about the long-term prospects for democracy (up from the 41% in August). However, when asked about America's involvement in the war, 49% feel that US troops should not be withdrawn during the next few months. When asked whether the US made a mistake in sending troops in the first place, voters are evenly split with 46% saying yes and 46% saying no.

In various speeches this week, Mr. Bush claimed to believe that America is well on the way to making Iraq a beacon of freedom and democracy for the Greater Middle East. This is an absurdly rosy forecast, says The Economist, given the horrific violence that now grips so many parts of Iraq, including the capital. Turning Iraq into a model democracy of Mr. Bush's dreams is a job that will take years. Mr. Kerry may have been closer to the truth when he said in New York this week that Mr. Bush's handling of the occupation had been so inept that America had traded a dictator for "a chaos" from which a new generation of terrorists could some day hit the United States. However, Mr. Kerry purveys a false optimism of his own. He claims that a fresh approach under a new American president can turn the position around. Says The Economist, this is a distortion; although Mr. Kerry's diagnosis of what is wrong in Iraq is franker than Mr. Bush's, his plan for peace is basically the same.

I agree that Bush needs to level with the American people; his unvarnished optimism projects and possibly even indicates intellectual dissonance on the matter. But I also think that casting off the possibility of success in Iraq for political expediency is a disastrous strategy that Kerry seems likely to embrace if he wins the presidency. Typical of most elections, we're faced with the lesser of two sketchy choices, and to me the only appropriate course of action points to redoubling military efforts and resolve until Allawi can attempt to consolidate control with a sufficiently rebuilt Iraqi Army and security force.

The long-term military and economic consequences of failure should preclude campaign rhetoric about the prohibitive costs of continued involvement. As I've said before, "we're in it to win it."

To emphasize my point about Kerry, read John Hawkins' collection of Kerry quotes on the war in Iraq. Even loyal Democrats should have a problem making a rational argument in favor of such wildly contradictory positions.

(Via Vodkapundit)

Posted by Bill at September 24, 2004 09:47 AM | TrackBack (3)

Comments

Kerry's criticism of Allawi is beyond the pale. He has really gone lower than ever before.

Here we have an honorable man from Iraq, trying his best to rebuild the country after years of brutal dictatorship, and Kerry thinks he actually knows better than Allawi as to what the realites are in Iraq.

And keep in mind the only thing Kerry is offering the American public on Iraq is his vague promise to somehow get other countries more involved in Iraq. Well, you can't do that if you constantly preach the gloom and doom about Iraq. You aren't likely to convince other countries to become involved in Iraq after you've gone around and told everyone how lousy things are there and how you want to pull out.

The sad thing is that Kerry's rhetoric impedes our efforts today to get more assistance from other countries, and is a demoralizing influence on our troops and on the Iraqi people. The only people encouraged by Kerry's remarks are the terrorists.

Kerry is already undermining our war on terror and placing his own political ambitions before the good of our country (sound familiar for Kerry?)...this man must be defeated. Period. America literally cannot afford 4 years of this man's so-called leadership.

Posted by: Another Thought at September 24, 2004 10:38 AM

Kerry is reverting to type. He sold out his country to the North Vietnamese in the '70s and he's selling us and Iraq and our forces out to the terrorists and the UN today.

Posted by: Tom H at September 24, 2004 10:51 AM

This must be how he plans to nuance a cooperative coalition of allies, by calling them liars!

Posted by: sjmld at September 24, 2004 11:03 AM

The leadership of the Democratic Party has yet to learn the meaning of the term "loyal opposition". They seem interested only in regaining power. Yes, all political parties want to lead, to be sure, but these people are a different animal because they don't seem to mind doing harm to the country in the pursuit of that power, as long as they get to rule what remains at the end of the day. How else can we explain the words and actions of men like Kerry, and Gore, and Lockhart, and McAuliffe? They seem to me to be men totally without principle; representative of and participants in the dissolution of a once great party.

Posted by: Swede at September 24, 2004 11:12 AM

No wonder John Kerry wants to France and Germany to be our allies. Like them, he, too, is against US interests.

Posted by: Brett at September 24, 2004 11:17 AM

A couple of days ago I had the crazy thought that the Kerry campaign was trying to avoid a total electoral collapse by stoking the fires of their base with Kerry's new opposition to the war, the draft demagouging, etc.

Now with the Kerry reaction to Allawi's speech and Theresa's musings about the potential capture of bin Laden before the election I am having that crazy thought again. Perhaps at this point Kerry/Edwards are just trying to avoid a total collapse that would hurt Democrat down ballot candidates?

None of what the Kerry campaign has done lately makes any sense if you believe that he has to move beyond liberal voters to win this election.

Dick Morris has argued that Kerry's fundamental problem is that his base is split on the Iraq war. I can see that and if Kerry is casting his lot against the war now, then he is basically giving up.

Maybe I'm wrong, but with Bush running strong in Wisconsin, Ohio, Missouri, Iowa, etc...I can't think of a better explanation.

Posted by: Violent Kitten at September 24, 2004 12:39 PM

I am also wondering what foreign leaders were those that have secretly endorsed Kerry. I have seen statements in the last few days that state that France and Germany will neither be sending troops to Iraq even if Kerry wins. With all of Kerry's rhetoric about involving more Allies, aka France and Germany, these two countries are doing everything possible to refute the claims.

Maybe it is because they both want Bush re-elected. Even if America and her real Allies succeed in Iraq it will take a long time and keep the West Hatred placed squarely where France and Germany want it, on the US. This allows them to stay pretty much out of the spotlight. it also allows their governments to keep increasingly dissatisfied citizens focused on things outside of their own countries.

Posted by: james at September 24, 2004 01:08 PM

Tom H, my reaction was the same as yours. Kerry is still fighting/protesting against Vietnam, despite the fact we're in a very different kind of war now, but maybe the nuance of that escapes him.

People like to hear that with effort they can achieve great things. This Reagan did very well. People don't like hearing that what's wrong is their fault. This Kerry does well. Self-loathing doesn't sell. I'm sure Allawi is too experienced to let Kerry's remarks, offensive as they are, bother him.

Posted by: Retread at September 24, 2004 03:42 PM

The vast majority of people want some form of stability in their lives. It lets us know where we stand, what we can do, and in what direction to go to try and improve our lives. Kerry's flip flopping on issues does the opposite. Many of his supporters must subconsciously feel this. The best thing he can do for President Bush is to continue down this path. As for his poor taste and lack of manners in his comments about the Prime Minister's speech, it proves he is unfit to be my Commander in Chief. I learned early in my Army career that you listen to the report from the commander on the ground. He is there and see what you do not, so who are you to question him on what is happening? The Democratic party no longer will "bear any burden, pay any price" in the defence of liberty. Instead they will "deride any person, obfuscate any position" in order to win an election.

Posted by: Pete at September 24, 2004 10:31 PM

Pete -

At this point, I have to agree with your assessment.

Posted by: Bill from INDC at September 24, 2004 11:02 PM

Caution, people -- the Mickey Kaus piece on Slate also linked to "Bush's Aura" and how we can't let ourselves be caught in the same echo chamber as the Dems ...

Posted by: Edward Yee at September 28, 2004 09:34 AM

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